Tariffs and new federal energy policies cloud future for Georgia’s solar industry

For both the U.S. and Georgia, 2024 was a banner year for solar.

The country added a record 50 gigawatts of new solar last year, according to the Solar Energy Industries Association and the data analytics firm Wood Mackenzie. While Georgia still trails most of its peers in rooftop installations, it too added a historic 1.5 gigawatts of solar to the grid. The Peach State can now power close to 900,000 homes with energy from the sun, good enough for seventh nationally in installed solar capacity.

But fast-forward a few months and Georgia’s solar industry now sees clouds gathering on the horizon, as President Donald Trump’s tariffs and disdain for federal clean energy tax credits create uncertainty for projects large and small.

“We’re concerned with how the next year will look based on overall economic sentiment, tariffs … I mean, it’s just a combination of everything,” said Steve Newby, the CEO of Radiance Solar, a national solar design and construction firm based in Marietta.

The solar industry is no stranger to tariffs.

In 2018 during his first term, Trump slapped a 30% tariff on imported panels, part of an offensive to try to break China’s stranglehold on solar manufacturing. President Joe Biden increased those, plus placed new duties on solar cells from Southeast Asia, home to Chinese-owned factories that the U.S. has accused of dumping cheap panels into the market.

Biden’s signature climate and health care law, the Inflation Reduction Act, also created new investment and manufacturing tax credits for U.S.-made solar. The incentives have helped boost solar installs and reshore the supply chain, especially in Georgia. The Korean solar giant Qcells has already expanded one factory and is working to complete another. A once-shuttered solar cell factory owned by Suniva also recently restarted production outside Atlanta.

But today, China still dominates much of the solar supply chain.

Now back in the White House, Trump has placed new tariffs on a wider range of products and countries. The moves are likely to make imported solar modules more expensive, but also the metal racks for mounting panels and electrical components needed to connect energy supplies to the grid, not just solar.

Newby said his company is already considering canceling an order it placed for Chinese-made transformers, because the new tariffs have made it “uneconomical.”

“There are U.S. manufacturers too in our space, but a lot still comes from there (China),” he said.

Smaller installers like Montana Busch, the founder and CEO of Athens-based solar firm Alternative Energy Southeast, said he’d hoped the uncertainty might push solar-curious customers to purchase systems now before prices go up.

But that’s not been the case. Busch said that while his pipeline of commercial and industrial projects has remained steady, interest in residential rooftop systems has been soft.

“We haven’t seen a lot of leads coming in,” Busch said.

Large solar projects sought by electric utilities like Georgia Power aren’t immune from the trade turmoil either.

During a recent Public Service Commission meeting, representatives from Dallas-based Stellar Renewable Power asked commissioners to delay selection of final bids that have been vying to meet Georgia Power’s need to add 2,100 megawatts of new solar. Stellar’s representatives said the “significant volatility” around trade negotiations and the IRA’s solar tax credits are upending pricing and financing.

Jamie Barber, director of the PSC’s energy efficiency and renewable energy unit, said other developers had expressed similar concerns, but the commission staff and Georgia Power said they opposed an extension. Ultimately, PSC commissioners postponed a vote on the issue until an upcoming meeting.

Georgia Power still pledges to bring 11,000 megawatts of renewables online by 2035. That’s about 11 times the maximum output of one of the new nuclear reactors at Plant Vogtle.

The utility did not directly respond to a question about whether current uncertainty will impede that goal, but company spokesman Jacob Hawkins said Georgia Power will work with the PSC to “manage or revise our programs to address changes in the industry.”

Still, solar industry leaders are optimistic about the long-term future of U.S. solar.

Data centers and other energy-intensive industries are expected to drive up demand for electricity, though there are questions about exactly how sharp the increase will be.

In an interview in Atlanta Tuesday at the RE+ Southeast solar convention, Abigail Ross Hopper, president and CEO of the Solar Energy Industries Association, said solar still has distinct advantages over other energy sources.

With waits growing longer for gas turbines — and decade-plus construction times still the norm for new nuclear plants — solar can be brought online much quicker. When paired with battery storage systems, Hopper said solar can provide around-the-clock power data centers and other heavy electricity users demand. Unlike coal and natural gas, solar also does not add heat-trapping greenhouse gases to the atmosphere.

Hopper acknowledged the coming months and years could be tough for pockets of the industry. But in the long-term, she sees solar continuing to grow as a part of the U.S.’ energy mix.

“I’m really bullish on that,” Hopper said.

While tariff decisions rest in Trump’s hands, questions about the fate of federal clean energy incentives could be resolved soon.

In the coming days, Congress is set to begin ironing out details of the budget blueprint Republicans passed earlier this month without a single Democratic vote.

Trump has indicated he wants Congress to eliminate the IRA’s tax credits for solar and other clean energy to help pay for tax cuts, but not all Republicans are on board. Last month, 21 House Republicans signed a letter urging their colleagues to protect the incentives.