Georgians should expect a warmer-than-normal end to 2024, federal forecasters say, which would cap what has already been one of the state’s hottest years on record so far.
New projections released by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration on Thursday show odds favor above-average temperatures in Georgia and all of the southern U.S. from October through December.
Pam Knox, an agricultural climatologist at the University of Georgia, said the forecast is “consistent with the long-term weather patterns we know are affecting our climate here in the Southeast,” and is driven mainly by two factors.
First, human-caused climate change — primarily due to the burning of fossil fuels — is driving up average temperatures globally, loading the dice in favor of hotter-than-normal conditions.
On top of that extra heat is the expected development of La Niña, a phenomenon characterized by a cooling of waters in the tropical Pacific Ocean, which influences global weather patterns.
The Pacific has been stuck in neutral for the last few months, but NOAA says there’s a 71% chance conditions will flip to La Niña by the end of November and continue into next year. La Niña typically brings warmer- and drier-than-normal conditions to the southern U.S., especially in winter.
The first eight months of 2024 have already been the sixth-hottest such period Georgia has experienced since record-keeping began in 1895, with average temperatures almost 1.5 degrees above the norm for the last 30 years.
Globally, meanwhile, temperatures have continued to be off the charts.
This August was the hottest on record for the planet, marking Earth’s 15th-straight month of record-high temperatures.
Tropical activity
The latest U.S. Drought Monitor shows more than half of Georgia is experiencing varying degrees of rainfall deficits, with the most severe drought conditions in far northern parts of the state.
If the forecast proves accurate, it’s possible the current dry conditions could worsen, Knox said, unless a drought-busting tropical storm takes aim at the state.
Credit: U.S. Drought Monitor
Credit: U.S. Drought Monitor
Hurricane season runs through Nov. 30. And after weeks of quiet, Knox said the tropical Atlantic Ocean appears to have woken up from an unusual midseason slumber. Earlier this month, Hurricane Francine slammed the Louisiana coast, before pushing inland and bringing rain to Georgia and other southeastern states.
Already, the National Hurricane Center says it is watching a disturbance in the Caribbean that could grow into a tropical system next week.
Knox said favorable conditions for storm formation in the Atlantic Basin should remain for the next several weeks, but it’s too soon to tell whether those systems will impact the Peach State.
“I think the likelihood we’re going to see more tropical activity in October is very good, but we don’t know where those storms are going to go, so it may not have much impact on Georgia,” she said.
A note of disclosure
This coverage is supported by a partnership with Green South Foundation and Journalism Funding Partners. You can learn more and support our climate reporting by donating at ajc.com/donate/climate.
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