Deepening 'flash drought' in Georgia is bad news for farmers

Most afternoons this summer, swaths of Georgia faced the possibility of soaking rains from afternoon thunderstorms.

Then, last month, the spigot in the sky turned off over much of the state. Since then, Atlanta, Columbus, Macon and towns in between have hardly seen any rainfall, according to the National Weather Service.

As a result, worsening dry conditions now cover a large — and growing — portion of the Peach State. The latest Drought Monitor released Thursday shows more than 77% of the state is now “abnormally dry.” Moderate drought has started to develop around parts of metro Atlanta, Southwest Georgia and beyond.

The so-called “flash drought” experts say is developing has turned yards crispy in metro Atlanta, but for some Georgia farmers, it’s causing real worry as they prepare to harvest.

Flash drought, explained

Flash droughts occur when low precipitation and warm temperatures combine, creating dry conditions that can expand rapidly.

After an unseasonably cool August, temperatures for much of September have been above average in Atlanta, NWS data shows. The extra heat increases evapotranspiration, sapping moisture from soils and vegetation.

But the real story is how little rainfall parts of Georgia have seen lately.

As of Friday, it had been 27 days since Atlanta received more than a tenth of an inch of rain, according to the NWS. For Columbus, it’s been 28 days. Other towns and cities are experiencing dry spells approaching 20 days.

A study published last year in the peer-reviewed journal Water Resources Research found the southeastern and central U.S. are most susceptible to flash droughts.

Pam Knox, an agricultural climatologist at the University of Georgia, said flash droughts create a vicious cycle for crops and other plants.

Higher temperatures lead plants to transpire, or release water vapor, faster than normal. But to quench their thirst and stay healthy, they have to pull more water from the ground, worsening soil moisture deficits.

“That puts a lot of stress on the plants,” Knox said.

‘Everybody’s feeling pretty ill’

Camp Hand, a Tifton-based cotton specialist with the University of Georgia’s Cooperative Extension, said the deepening drought comes at a bad time for farmers he works with in Middle and South Georgia.

Harvest season for cotton, Georgia’s second-most valuable agricultural commodity, is getting underway on farms across the state now.

Cotton that was started early in the season should be ok, Hand said. But later plantings — which are still developing and have higher water demands — are wilting. It’s not yet clear how bad the damage will be, he said, but the lack of rain and heat could diminish the quality of some of the crop.

Peanut farmers are also struggling.

Harvesting peanuts requires a machine to dig the plant up from the ground to collect the pods. Hand said the parched soils are so hard that farmers are having difficulty even unearthing the plants.

The dry conditions, combined with low commodity prices and the arrival of a new invasive insect known as the cotton jassid, have dampened farmer morale, Hand said.

“Everybody’s feeling pretty ill right now,” he said.

A ‘more active period’

When will rain arrive to offer relief? It looks increasingly likely some could show up later this week.

Forecasters from the NWS’ Peachtree City office wrote Monday that a cold front is expected to begin to arrive in Georgia late Wednesday, bringing with it significant moisture and the potential for severe storms. The timing is still up in the air, but the NWS said parts of central and North Georgia could see half an inch to two inches of rain Thursday through Friday. The heaviest rain is expected in the northern part of the state.

Beyond that, odds are not great for a return of the wet conditions Georgia saw in summer.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s end-of-year forecast favors hotter and drier than normal conditions over most of Georgia through December. Dry weather is most likely in the northern half of the state.

The wildcard is what happens in the tropics.

The Atlantic Basin is in what has typically been the most active part of hurricane season. But before Tropical Storm Gabrielle formed days ago, the region had been eerily quiet for weeks. Gabrielle is expected to curve away from the U.S. East Coast and stay out at sea.

Knox, the UGA climatologist, said there are now signs the tropics are waking up, but it’s too soon to tell whether any potential storms will bring rain or wind to Georgia.

“There’s nothing brewing there now, but we are expecting to go into more active period,” Knox said.

Hurricane season lasts until Nov. 30.

A note of disclosure

This coverage is supported by a partnership with Green South Foundation and Journalism Funding Partners. You can learn more and support our climate reporting by donating at AJC.com/donate/climate.

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