SAVANNAH ― Legend has it Savannah’s meteoric rise as a port city started with a snap decision by a cargo ship captain 25 years ago. The vessel, operated by then the world’s largest carrier, was sailing north to call on one of the several larger ports up the East Coast when the skipper elected to “turn left” at the Savannah River.
Like all good yarns, the story points to a broader truth: The Maersk shipping line became a regular Savannah port visitor in 2000, and the world’s other mammoth carriers soon followed suit. By 2007, Savannah had climbed from the fifth-busiest port along the Atlantic seaboard to second behind only New York-New Jersey. Today it is the fastest-growing port on the East Coast.
But the real reason for Savannah’s ascension has to do with why Maersk and the others moved to frequent the Georgia Ports Authority docks.
China.
The Asian nation joined the World Trade Organization in 2001, and Savannah’s port growth paralleled China’s rise as a U.S. trading partner. China accounts today for nearly 40% of the port’s imports, more than at any other port on the Atlantic coast.
Credit: NYT
Credit: NYT
Savannah is now feeling the effect of the U.S.-China trade dispute. Imports from China dropped 28.5% nationally in May. The Georgia Ports Authority has yet to release May numbers but Savannah vessel calls have dipped in recent weeks. Authority CEO Griff Lynch has projected June container volumes to be down significantly from the same month a year ago.
The Georgia Ports Authority is banking on its growing business with other Asian countries to weather the trade storm — and that what drew ships from China over the last quarter-century will also draw China’s neighbors in the years ahead.
Savannah’s trans-Atlantic traffic has nearly doubled since 2019 and now makes up more than 40% of imports, much of it fueled by India, Vietnam, Thailand, Indonesia and Malaysia.
China’s share of Savannah’s overall container volume, while still the biggest single contributor, has been declining for years, from 48% in 2018 to 33%.
The trend reflects moves by big box retailers and other large-scale manufacturers to diversify their operations over much of the last decade in what is known as a “China Plus One” strategy. As an already established entry point and distribution hub for those goods sellers, Savannah stands to benefit even as President Donald Trump’s tariffs drive down trade from China.
U.S. tariffs on China’s exports have gyrated between 30% and 145% in recent months and could accelerate the manufacturing shift to other Asian countries. Demographic factors, such as China’s population decline and aging workforce, also are at play.
“Analysts looked into the future and saw challenges in China, just like we’re seeing now,” Lynch said. “We’ve worked to get ahead of it.”
Credit: NYT
Credit: NYT
Looking beyond China
The China Plus One strategy emerged in 2013 as concerns grew about manufacturers’ dependency on China. In the years that followed, Target, Walmart and Apple were among the large-scale goods makers to open new facilities outside China or source products from other countries, with India as the most popular.
Ocean carriers are adjusting trade routes to meet that demand, and Savannah already has its modern-day Maersk in carrier Ocean Network Express, or ONE. The Japanese shipping line has operated a route between Savannah and India since June 2024, with vessels calling weekly.
Savannah’s port trade with India is up 50% over the last five years and India now accounts for about 7% of all traffic.
Credit: Stephen B. Morton for The Atlanta Journal Constitution
Credit: Stephen B. Morton for The Atlanta Journal Constitution
Savannah is a highly efficient port, said Nils Haupt with German shipping line Hapag-Lloyd AG, a frequent Georgia ports user. It is the East Coast’s westernmost port, making for quick connections to fast-growing metropolitan areas such as Atlanta, Charlotte and Nashville. And its rail connectivity and authority-led business model — where ocean carriers are customers, not terminal operators — simplify logistics along the supply chain, he said.
As a result, some think Savannah’s port won’t just survive a protracted U.S.-China trade war but is in position to thrive.
“Savannah is going to come off better from the divorce with China than other ports,” said Walter Kemmsies, a Savannah-based maritime trade consultant. “Big box retailers that have huge distribution centers in Savannah have been slowly moving away from China for years and that’s only going to pick up speed. Long-term, Savannah is in a brilliant spot.”
Other supply chain experts aren’t so bullish. According to the National Retail Federation’s Jonathan Gold, Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariff threats against countries enjoying manufacturing gains under the China Plus One shift have forced a “standstill.” For example, imports from Vietnam were to face a 46% tariff under Trump’s plan.
“There’s too much uncertainty right now,” Gold said. “More and more retailers are looking to get away from China, but there is no new China. They can’t get completely out of China. What’s important is to plan and prepare and be ready to move.”
Suez Canal bump?
West Coast ports, such as the nation’s largest at Los Angeles/Long Beach, handle as much as 75% of China’s cargo traffic.
East Coast officials, though, anticipate a significant bump in trans-Atlantic trade from other Asian nations once ocean carriers resume using the Suez Canal. Most shipping lines have been bypassing the Suez, a 120-mile-long shortcut that connects the Indian Ocean to the Atlantic Ocean via the Mediterranean Sea, since Houthi militants based in Yemen began firing missiles at cargo vessels as they approached the canal in late 2023.
When the Suez is open, moving goods from India and its neighbors to Savannah takes about the same time as shipping cargo from China to Savannah across the Pacific Ocean and through the Panama Canal. With the Suez under siege, however, ocean carriers have been routing around the southern tip of Africa instead, adding 10 days to the trans-Atlantic transit.
An end to the Houthi conflict would create a “West Coast-East Coast” story for maritime trade in the U.S., the Georgia Ports Authority’s Lynch said.
“The West Coast will continue to be the preferred port for China, but once the Suez opens up, all the market share elsewhere in Asia is going to shift to the East Coast,” Lynch said. “And with the manufacturing shift away from China, that means 10 years from now the East Coast will be handling the majority of trade period.”
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