Those hotter than normal temperatures Atlantans have endured so far this June? Even more extreme heat is likely on the way in the months to come, according to a new federal forecast released Thursday.
The state of Georgia — along with most of the continental U.S. — is expected to face above average temperatures through September, new projections by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) show, as record heat fueled by human-caused climate change continues to bake the planet.
NOAA’s projections give south and central Georgia, including the Atlanta area, the best odds of facing abnormal heat the rest of the summer.
Over the last 30 years, June in Atlanta has meant a daily average high of around 87 degrees. But temperatures this June have already been well above normal for this time of year, with daily highs averaging nearly 89 degrees this month. Historically, July and August have been even hotter.
The forecast comes as an unprecedented streak of record-breaking heat that has enveloped the globe for more than a year continues with little sign of stopping.
This May was the planet’s hottest such month on record, with temperatures more than 2 degrees above the 30-year average, NOAA data shows. Earth has now experienced 12-straight months of record high global temperatures, said Karin Gleason with NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information.
We are only halfway through the year and already, NOAA says there is a 50% chance that 2024 will eclipse 2023 as the hottest year ever recorded.
In addition to raising average temperatures, human-caused climate change is increasing the frequency and intensity of dayslong heat waves across the country, including in Atlanta. The city experienced its first dose of extreme heat last weekend and another blast of temperatures in the high-90s could arrive as soon as Sunday.
Atlanta now sees about eight more heat waves that it did 1961, according to the U.S. Global Change Research Program. The city’s “heat wave season,” when multiday stretches of dangerous temperatures are possible, has also lengthened by more than 80 days.
About 1,200 people die in the U.S. each year from extreme heat, according to the Atlanta-based Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), but the actual death toll is likely much higher.
Heat-related illnesses and deaths occur when exposure to high temperatures overwhelm the human body’s natural cooling mechanisms. This can lead to a steep rise in body temperature that can risk damage to vital organs and even the brain.
The risk of complications is greatest in children, the elderly, pregnant women and those with certain medical conditions, like heart and lung issues, according to the CDC. Outdoor workers, athletes who exercise outside and people without access to air conditioning are also more vulnerable.
Heat risk also varies greatly across Atlanta’s urban landscape. Areas shaded by trees are much cooler than “urban heat islands” packed with buildings and heat-absorbing pavement. Historically, parts of the city with less vegetation have been home to more lower-income residents and communities of color.
Atlanta has not only been hotter than normal lately — like most of Georgia, it has also been very dry. Most years in June, the city receives around 4.5 inches of rain. So far this month, Atlanta seen less than an inch of precipitation.
Credit: U.S. Drought Monitor
Credit: U.S. Drought Monitor
The combination of scant rain and high temperatures have allowed “abnormally dry” conditions to expand in the state over the past week, with a pocket of moderate drought developing around the metro area, the latest U.S. Drought Monitor released Thursday shows.
Fortunately, the latest federal projections do not foresee drought deepening over the next three months.
A note of disclosure
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