At a recent Georgia Republican Party fundraising dinner, a cattle call of potential candidates for statewide offices took the stage. All are fine folks. All have legislative accomplishments that could benefit their potential campaigns. While few have announced their intentions, the speakers may have included a handful considering a run against U.S. Sen. Jon Ossoff. No one messed up; no one wowed the audience with a breakthrough moment, either.
After the event, one smart operative said to me, “If Brian Kemp doesn’t run for Senate, we are screwed.” “Screwed” is insider lingo we use in politics to mean “our circumstances are less than ideal,” “our chances aren’t good” or “a metal bit will drill a gaping and irreparable hole into us.”
I’ve heard from voices from “the donor class” — rich people who can max out to campaigns — that Kemp has a “moral obligation” to the party, state and, heavens to Betsy, even the nation to get in the race.
Panic attacks are normal. At least I tell myself they are. If you work in politics and don’t have panic attacks, you’re doing it wrong. Like manning an understaffed air traffic control tower, it’s not a profession for the nonchalant.
This collective anxiety calls for a moment of mental health. Let’s do some group yoga, breath dramatically into paper bags or consume some of those THC beverages I’ve read about recently. (Still legal! Good work spiking that nanny state prohibition, General Assembly!) For fellow Republicans who find that all too New Age-y, do some talk therapy called prayer.
All this fainting onto the couch like a Victorian woman trope doesn’t come from mere empty emotion. The concern has empirical data to back it up. Conservative groups anxious to get Kemp in the race have sent smoke signals as subtle as spray-painting their message on the lawn of the Governor’s Mansion. They polled Georgians and planted the results in D.C. media. Take polls meant to persuade with a grain of salt, but the consistency of Kemp’s lead over Ossoff, always beyond the margin of error, convinces me they’re accurate.
Politico headlined a January story: “GOP poll shows Kemp beating Ossoff in hypothetical Georgia Senate matchup.” Republicans like that part but then hear the scary foreboding music of a horror film when they get to the subhead: “Ossoff, the first-term Democrat, would defeat other potential rivals.”
The poll had all other potential GOP candidates losing to Ossoff by double digits. Zoiks! This proves right the guy who said we’re screwed!
Nah. In every one of those head to heads that had Ossoff leading, the senator was still under 50%. Think of it this way: A Senate incumbent above 50 is on safe land, happily building sandcastles. A Senate incumbent below 50 is swimming in shark-infested waters. He might not get eaten, but he’s on the menu.
The generic ballot should worry Democrats even more. While regular folks think generic ballot means a choice between different discounted prescription drugs — it might mean that too — in politics, it means asking, “Who would you vote for today for U.S. Senate, a Republican or a Democrat?” Get it? It’s generic because it doesn’t include names.
By a small but important 38-35 margin, Georgians gave Republicans the edge. This is the real story. There’s no doubt Kemp provides the best matchup for the GOP, but he’s not the only hope.
No one, not even Kemp, the most popular political figure in the state, wins by double digits in Georgia statewide. We can assume, fairly safely, any race will be within 7 points and most likely less than that.
Those Republicans losing to Ossoff largely lack name ID, with the exception of Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger, who actually got the highest vote percentage of any statewide winners in 2022.
There’s something about the primary election process that diminishes candidates seeking to challenge an incumbent from the other party or to run for an open seat. Lacking the majestic trappings of office or the title they are seeking to gain, candidates look small. I mean that figuratively not literally.
There’s something about winning a nomination for a big office that changes that. When I ran the communications operation for Nathan Deal’s 2010 run for governor, Deal ate in anonymity at every Dairy Queen and Cracker Barrel in the state. I mean that literally not figuratively. I mean every one. Winning the nomination metamorphizes the caterpillar into a butterfly. After that, every soft serve ice cream or country fried steak treat was interrupted by requests for pictures.
In 2017, while running for the Republican nomination for governor, I ran into Kemp in Athens picking up pizza for his family. So safe was he from adoring crowds wanting pictures that he was wearing workout shorts and Crocs.
Public perception of these guys changes when political advertising gives them near universal name ID and something even more powerful, a mystique of quasi-fame that they don’t have a year out from a primary election.
Political handicappers rate Ossoff as the most vulnerable Senate Democratic incumbent. The candidate who emerges from the cocoon to win the Republican nomination to take on Ossoff will be as competitive in polling as a general Republican is vs. a generic Democrat today.
If they aren’t, to use the professional terminology, we’re “screwed.” But let’s save the panic attack until then. At least those THC drinks are still on store shelves.
Credit: Andrea Hudson
Credit: Andrea Hudson
Brian Robinson was a spokesperson for former Gov. Nathan Deal.
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