There’s an open U.S. House seat in coastal Georgia. Who wants it?

The incumbent, Rep. Buddy Carter, R-St. Simons Island, entered the 2026 U.S. Senate race May 8, three days after term-limited Gov. Brian Kemp said he wouldn’t seek the GOP nomination for the post. Carter has since spent $2 million on a statewide ad buy to introduce himself to Republican voters beyond the coast as a “MAGA warrior.”

He’s also affirmed, including in an interview on the AJC’s “Politically Georgia” podcast, that he’s all in on a Senate run and will not consider a seventh term in the House.

Yet, along Georgia’s coast, where residents have been represented by just two congressmen over the past three-plus decades — Carter and former U.S. Rep. Jack Kingston, who served from 1992 until 2015 — there’s no mad scramble to the stump.

The usual political suspects when it comes to higher office, such as state lawmakers, have said they won’t run. The coast’s high-profile city mayors are hesitant to jump into the race, saying they are leaning against runs but haven’t completely ruled it out. And there’s no wealthy business owner similar to recent Georgia U.S. House election winners Marjorie Taylor Greene, Mike Collins or Andrew Clyde pining for Capitol Hill.

Political consultants who work on the coast say interest is high, but the candidate list thus far is “not stellar,” as one put it. If the GOP primary were held today, the election would pit Kandiss Taylor, a polarizing hard-liner who once ran for governor with the campaign slogan “Jesus, guns and babies,” against Pat Farrell, a mild-mannered, long-serving Savannah-area county commissioner.

Other Republicans who have taken steps toward entering the race include Bryan County Commission Chairman Carter Infinger and insurance executive Jim Kingston, the youngest son of the former congressman.

There are no announced candidates yet from the Democrats, who last won a District 1 election in 1990.

Credit: TNS

Credit: TNS

Waiting on Kemp, Trump and Carter

Asked to explain the hesitancy, political consultant Mark Rountree of Landmark Communications pointed to the calendar.

“The primary is still a year away,” said Rountree, a veteran of Buddy Carter’s congressional campaigns. “But it is imminent that others will be jumping into this race.”

The district’s highest-profile politician, state Rep. Ron Stephens, R-Savannah, said he expects at least 15 GOP primary candidates. Stephens is a 30-year statehouse veteran and one of the region’s lawmakers who has said he won’t run for U.S. House. That list also includes state Reps. Jesse Petrea, R-Savannah, and Rick Townsend, R-Brunswick; and state Sens. Ben Watson, R-Savannah, and Mike Hodges, R-Brunswick.

Credit: Arvin Temkar/AJC

Credit: Arvin Temkar/AJC

Petrea said he doesn’t “think anybody needs to be in a hurry to announce” their campaign since there’s no favorite out there raising money.

Another factor is the pending decision by Kemp and President Donald Trump on who to back for the U.S. Senate race. The two most popular Republicans in Georgia, Kemp and Trump have met and discussed joining forces to endorse one candidate to challenge incumbent Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff in 2026.

If Carter isn’t the consensus pick of Kemp and Trump, some speculate the Republican Party apparatus will encourage Carter to seek reelection to the House. Until there is more certainty about Carter’s 2026 plans, donors will be reluctant to pledge money to support other candidates, political insiders said.

“What is Buddy ultimately going to do is the question everyone is asking right now,” said David Simons of the Simons Political Group, a Savannah-based campaign consulting firm.

Democrats not eager to run in red district

Carter’s freezing of the Republican field is also affecting the Democrats. The 15-county district leans hard right, even as the main population center, Savannah and Chatham County, typically votes blue. Since 1992, the Republican candidate in the district has received at least 57% of the vote in every general election.

The coast’s highest-profile Democrats, such as Savannah Mayor Van Johnson and state Sen. Derek Mallow, are uncommitted while they watch the Republican field develop.

Credit: Russ Bynum/AP

Credit: Russ Bynum/AP

“Democrats will hold their powder dry seeking candidates,” said Johnson, who is term-limited as Savannah’s mayor and must leave office in 2027. “The goal here is to win and put your best foot forward. Historically, the seat has been Republican. The Democrats will have less candidates but more substantial candidates in order to be competitive.”

Johnson and other Democratic Party leaders along the coast recognize the opportunity an open seat provides, particularly in a midterm election where historical trends favor candidates from the minority party. But they understand the challenge in trying to flip a seat so decidedly red.

Simons, the Savannah political consultant, summed it up bluntly: “No Democrat is prepared to give up a safe seat to be Don Quixote, tilting at windmills.”