The countdown to Election Day is on, and more than 2 million voters have already cast their ballot in the Peach State for the 2024 election. Our latest polling from The Atlanta Journal-Constitution shows former President Donald Trump leading Vice President Harris, 47% to 43%.
But with such a narrow margin, any voting bloc in battleground Georgia could sway the outcome of the election. The “Politically Georgia” team curated conversations over the past week dealing with the issues most important to Georgia’s diverse communities.
Black male voters
Our poll is the latest to suggest that Harris is struggling to win enough support from this key constituency to gain victory in Georgia. Her backing among Black voters is 74%, lower than the 88% that favored Joe Biden in 2020 when he narrowly won the state. And there’s a large gender gap within the community, with more Black women supporting Harris than men.
“A whopping 31% of Black male voters are undecided. On the female side for Black voters, only 1% (are) voting for Trump, 88% for Harris and 10% undecided,” University of Georgia pollster Trey Hood said.
If those undecided Black male voters swing toward Trump or stay at home, Hood said the implications could be “seismic.”
Darius Jones, founder and president of the National Black Empowerment Council, said he’s not so sure that the numbers will swing drastically. But he does acknowledge that in future election cycles there will be even larger efforts to sway the Black electorate.
“The Black male vote is not a monolith,” Jones said. “And to the degree to which we can speak to their issues and create a competition, I for one believe the Black community in the future is going to benefit from that competition for our vote.”
LGBTQ voters
Jeff Graham, executive director of the LGBTQ group Georgia Equality, spoke last week to “Politically Georgia.”
The Georgia Legislature passed a series of culture war bills during this past biennial session, many aimed at transgender minors.
“I think, unfortunately, the specifics get lost because we spend so much time talking about these divisive issues,” Graham said.
With the end of the legislative session this year, everyone is up for reelection under the Gold Dome, although some legislators are running unopposed. Graham’s organization has endorsed several candidates.
“Everyone in the LGBT community is at risk of having the clock turned back on our rights, our hard-earned, hard-fought rights,” Graham said. “We are still frankly in a very fragile place in this country in terms of acceptance and in terms of legal recognition and legal protection.”
Female voters
The AJC polling also revealed a large gender gap in the Peach State.
Hood said this divide is not new, although it has widened this election cycle
“The gender gap has existed since 1980,” Hood said. “It’s very big this election cycle, though.”
He said about 60% of male voters who responded to the poll are backing Trump, with only 28% supporting Harris.
“And then it’s almost inverted,” Hood said.
Harris has the backing of about 55% of the women surveyed, and 37% favor Trump.
Former state Sen. Jen Jordan, a Democrat, called women “the most reliable voters” in Georgia.
“It’s pretty exciting to be able to vote for a woman who really could be president of the United States, and we’re seeing early voting tends to favor women, too,” she said.
Hispanic and Asian American voters
Hispanic and Asian American voters could also sway this narrow presidential contest.
“If it’s super close, like it was last time, less than 12,000 votes, Hispanics could make a difference. Asians could make a difference,” Hood said.
Since the 2008 presidential election, more Hispanic and Asian American voters have been participating in elections. In 2008, the two groups made up roughly 2% of voters in the presidential election. In 2020, their share had grown to 5%.
Gwinnett County Democratic Chair Brenda López Romero emphasized the importance of the economy, particularly “inflation, jobs and affordable housing.”
AJC polling backs up this belief, showing inflation and the economy are the top two concerns of voters.
Republican state Sen. Jason Anavitarte agreed with Romero on the economy, but he repeatedly emphasized the importance of immigration policy.
“I think a lot of Latinos, we’re seeing, you know, they do want to secure communities,” Anavitarte said. “They don’t want, dangerous street criminals in their backyard, and they also want to secure a border between the U.S. and Mexico.”
Asian Americans voters are also not a monolith and are getting more attention this cycle.
“I think there’s a lot of shared common ground with the very diverse Asian American communities. You know, we’re talking 20 to 30 different ethnic groups, 40 to 50 different languages spoken,” said Democratic state Rep. Sam Park of Lawerenceville.
Dr. Fun Fong of the Cobb County Republican Party said he thinks “there’s more focus on Asian American voters” because “everyone’s looking for that last little vote here in Georgia since we’re a battleground state.”
Monday on ”Politically Georgia”: Veteran campaign strategist James Carville joins the show.
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