It was my easiest prediction for five years running. Proclaim that Georgia would field an elite defense and I could never be wrong. Kirby Smart set a standard that his defense surely would meet no matter how many stars went on to the NFL.
Then Georgia’s defense slipped last season. Smart’s team has the least production returning on defense since the 2022 season. Now, I’m no longer assuming that the Bulldogs will maintain the standard with top-notch recruiting, player development and leadership.
It might seem harsh to declare that Georgia’s defense wasn’t up to snuff in 2024, considering it was good enough to win an SEC championship. But Bulldogs defensive coordinator Glenn Schumann sees it the same way.
“I don’t think we were consistent enough to meet the standard,” he said. “That’s just the reality.”
There was a time the Bulldogs could be expected to plug any roster holes on defense and keep playing great. ESPN analyst Bill Connelly calculates a returning production percentage for each team by weighing several predictive variables. Georgia returned only 39% of its defensive production in 2021 and 44% in 2022, when five ex-Bulldogs defenders were picked in the first round of the NFL draft.
The Bulldogs still were elite defensively in those years. They declined in 2024 despite returning 68% of its production. This year, UGA’s defense returns just 51% of its production. Smart still recruits prep players better than any coach, and the transfer players should help, but I’m no longer giving the Bulldogs the benefit of the doubt that their defense will be elite.
Credit: Jason Getz / Jason.Getz@ajc.com
Credit: Jason Getz / Jason.Getz@ajc.com
It didn’t happen last season. Schumann noted that Georgia held down five opponents that made the 12-team playoff: Clemson (3 points), Texas (15, 19) Tennessee (17) and Notre Dame (16, kickoff return excluded). But the Bulldogs allowed 28 or more points against four other foes: Alabama (41), Mississippi State (31), Ole Miss (28) and Georgia Tech (42 overall in an eight-overtime game, 27 in regulation).
Said Schumann: “Consistency is a mark of great defense … That’s what makes something elite. So, we can’t have up-and-down performances. Everybody in that (group) knows that when they came to Georgia, they came to Georgia to play championship-level defense, coaches (and) players included. So, anything short of that isn’t the standard.”
It should have been relatively easy for Georgia’s defense to meet the standard in 2024. It was the first year since 2020 that NFL teams didn’t pick any ex-Bulldogs in the first round of the draft.
Georgia kept playing great defense as an unprecedented number of top prospects went to the NFL from 2022-23. Surely, the Bulldogs could do it in a year when the NFL talent drain was comparatively manageable.
They couldn’t. The 2024 Bulldogs ranked ninth in Connelly’s SP+ defensive metric (adjusted for opponent and tempo). That was their worst finish since 2018, Smart’s third season in Athens. Georgia’s defense ranked No. 1 from 2019-21, third in 2022 and fifth in 2023.
The numbers aren’t lying about the Bulldogs. Their defense declined from elite to just very good in 2024. That margin matters for a program with national championship aspirations.
“Stats always tell you something,” Schumann said. “Stats are what they are. You start rationalizing stats, then you’re just making excuses for a performance that wasn’t up to our standard.”
He was speaking specifically about Georgia’s run defense. The Bulldogs allowed 3.7 yards per rush last season. That was slightly better than 2023 (3.8), but well below the standard of 2.9 yards or less from 2021-22. Explosive runs allowed were a big issue in 2024. The Bulldogs allowed more runs of 20-plus yards (16) than they did over the previous two seasons combined (13).
Schumann said poor tackling was the biggest issue. The Bulldogs surrendered too many yards after contact and poor angles in pursuit allowed ball carriers to get outside for gains. Georgia will have to figure out how to be better without top-15 NFL draft picks Mykel Williams (49ers) and Jalon Walker (Falcons) playing in the front.
Credit: Jason Getz / Jason.Getz@ajc.com
Credit: Jason Getz / Jason.Getz@ajc.com
“That’s part of what you find out in camp,” Schumann said “You teach the defense, and then as you get closer to games, you mold it to the guys. We’re not asking anybody to go replace Jalon Walker in that way. It might be three different guys replace what he did.”
Georgia had issues defending passes in 2024, too. The Bulldogs ranked 35th nationally and fifth among SEC teams in defensive passing efficiency. They allowed 17 passes of 30 yards or more, and five of those went for at least 50 yards. This season, Georgia’s back line includes four freshmen and three transfers on the depth chart.
We won’t know for sure about Georgia’s defense until official games. Schumann was asked how the players on this defense compare athletically with past groups.
“I’m really pleased with where this group is,” Schumann said. “I think they had a great offseason. I think that we have size. I think we have speed. I don’t think comparisons (to previous groups) are fair to the guys here or the guys before.”
Georgia’s standards are high for defense. The Bulldogs didn’t meet them in 2024. I was wrong about what’s usually my easiest prediction. I won’t make that mistake again.
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