ATHENS — Kirby Smart said Georgia is “built for this” when it comes to having the necessary resiliency to make the College Football Playoff this season.
That’s a good thing because the Bulldogs (3-1, 1-1 SEC) have plenty of challenges left on their schedule, and their odds of making the 12-team CFP field took a hit with the 24-21 loss to Alabama on Saturday.
ESPN’s FPI model shows No. 12-ranked Georgia has a 55.8% chance of making the CFP entering into its noon game Saturday against Kentucky in Athens.
If the season were to end today, applying the AP Top 25 poll rankings in place of the CFP Selection Committee rankings (first week set for Nov. 4), the Bulldogs would not be in the 12-team field.
Here’s a look at the remaining opponents on Georgia’s schedule, and the threat each opponent poses:
Kentucky, Oct. 4, Athens
The Wildcats (2-2, 0-2 SEC) have shown they can run the ball effectively but not much else, taking leads of 7-0 and 10-7 at South Carolina on Saturday before melting down in the second quarter with catastrophic turnovers and special-teams miscues.
Georgia likely can stick to its “Plan A” of running the ball to set up play-action shots and find enough success to beat Kentucky a 16th consecutive year, and do so comfortably. Kentucky ranks 13th against the run in the SEC and has a shaky quarterback situation.
Auburn, Oct. 11, Auburn, Alabama
Georgia has won seven consecutive in the series, but only by a touchdown in two of its past three trips to raucous Jordan-Hare Stadium — and this season’s contest will be under the lights (recently announced kick options of 7 p.m., 7:30 p.m. or 7:45 p.m.).
The Tigers’ season goals will be on the line against Georgia, and they’ll have the benefit of an off week to prepare after losing their first two SEC games, 24-17 at No. 5 Oklahoma and 16-10 at No. 6 Texas A&M.
Auburn (3-2, 0-2 SEC) will challenge Georgia’s discipline on defense with dual-threat quarterback Jackson Arnold and could force Gunner Stockton to the air as the Tigers’ run defense ranks among the best in the nation (88 yards per game).
Credit: HYOSUB SHIN / AJC
Credit: HYOSUB SHIN / AJC
Ole Miss, Oct. 18, Athens
There’s a good chance the No. 4 Rebels (5-0, 3-0 SEC) will still be the highest-ranked SEC team when they play at Sanford Stadium, as they are off this week before a home game against punchless Washington State leading into their showdown at Georgia.
The Ole Miss offense is the most dynamic left on UGA’s schedule. Ferris State transfer Trinidad Chambliss has passed for more than 300 yards in each of his three starts since replacing incumbent Austin Simmons, while also rushing for 245 yards and two touchdowns.
Georgia’s best defense will be keeping the Rebels off the field, which likely means leaning on the ground game against an Ole Miss defense that ranks 98th in the nation (15th in the SEC) against the run, allowing 163.8 yards per contest and 4.82 yards per carry.
Florida, Nov. 1, Jacksonville, Florida
The rivalry game could be all the Gators (1-3, 0-1 SEC) have left to cling to by the time these teams meet, and both will be coming off a bye week with time to prepare for their nationally televised 3:30 p.m. ABC showdown.
A healthy DJ Lagway at quarterback would make Florida a threat, presuming the Gators’ defense maintains the stingy level of play it has shown through the first four games.
Lagway’s struggles to return from injury have undermined a talented defense that has allowed fewer yards (284.2 per game) and points (16.0) per game than Georgia (324, 19.50) despite Florida having played two top-5 teams on the road.
Mississippi State, Nov. 8, Starkville, Mississippi
Starkville is a hard place to get to, and of late, a difficult place to play. The Bulldogs (4-1, 0-1) beat Arizona State 24-20 and took Tennessee to overtime Saturday in 61,337-seat Davis Wade Stadium.
Coach Jeff Lebby’s offense passed for more than 300 yards against a Georgia secondary last year that was better than this season’s version, and that was without current starter Blake Shapen.
Mississippi State ranks 33rd in total defense (305.6), while UGA is 47th (324.0), and if Georgia’s slow starts continue, Lebby’s team has the potential to keep the cowbells ringing into the fourth quarter.
Texas, Nov. 15, Athens
The Longhorns (3-1, 0-0 SEC) have a week off before they play Georgia, while the Bulldogs will be coming off a road game at Mississippi State, putting a more-rested Texas at an advantage before the game kicks off.
Georgia might need to play its best game of the season to win, as the Longhorns rank in the top five in the nation in total defense, scoring defense and rushing defense and rank seventh in pass-efficiency defense.
Arch Manning, once a high-priority Georgia target, will have five more games in coach Steve Sarkisian’s offense under his belt by the time the Longhorns come to Athens and should have a strong feel for the offense.
Credit: AP
Credit: AP
Charlotte, Nov. 22, Athens
The 49ers (1-3) of the American Conference rank 132nd of the 136 Football Bowl Subdivision teams in the ESPN FPR rankings and easily are the worst team remaining on the Georgia football schedule.
It’s a well-placed recovery/tune-up game for Smart with a hard-nosed rivalry game on deck and, perhaps, an SEC title game two weeks away.
Georgia Tech, Nov. 28, Mercedes-Benz Stadium
Coach Brent Key has all but said Georgia Tech’s 365-day mission statement is to beat Georgia, and last season’s eight-overtime game was evidence of such.
The combination of dual-threat quarterback Haynes King and coordinator Buster Faulkner provides the Yellow Jackets (5-0) biggest threat to the Bulldogs.
Georgia counters with a run game behind an offensive line that will get better with each week of experience matched up against a Georgia Tech defense that’s 100th in the nation against the run.
The Mercedes-Benz Stadium setting plays to UGA’s favor, as it’s likely to be a partisan Georgia crowd cheering for a team familiar with playing in the setting.
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