‘He could be a bona fide ace.’ How Spencer Schwellenbach’s breakout affects Braves’ future

Atlanta Braves pitcher Spencer Schwellenbach throws in the first inning of a baseball game against the New York Mets, Monday, Sept. 30, 2024, in Atlanta. (AP Photo/Jason Allen)

Credit: AP

Credit: AP

Atlanta Braves pitcher Spencer Schwellenbach throws in the first inning of a baseball game against the New York Mets, Monday, Sept. 30, 2024, in Atlanta. (AP Photo/Jason Allen)

Spencer Schwellenbach’s emergence was crucial for the 2024 Braves. It’s even more important for the 2025 Braves – and beyond.

Schwellenbach’s brilliance made him an unexpected foundational part of the rotation. He had higher highs than almost any rookie pitcher, sometimes reaching levels comparable with Pirates phenom Paul Skenes. Even as the team sometimes sputtered around him, Schwellenbach provided stability.

Braves veterans, from the manager to the All-Stars, spoke glowingly about the 24-year-old Schwellenbach. He earned rave reviews for his maturity and understanding, adding credence to the belief there’s so much more to unlock.

“I think he could be an absolute, bona fide ace in this league,” starter Chris Sale, who’s expected to win the National League Cy Young Award, told The Atlanta Journal-Constitution. “It just seems like he’s figuring out how to use his stuff and compete with what he’s got. It’s impressive because some guys, it takes five years to figure that (stuff) out. It took him five starts to figure it out. He’s smart. He’s very aware. He’s freakishly athletic, too, which helps a lot.”

“The upside is really good with this young guy,” manager Brian Snitker said. “There’s a lot to like there. He does a lot of things that winning pitchers do: holding runners, fielding his position, just the aptitude he’s shown. He’s figured himself out. … You don’t know how quick a guy is going to develop or get the hang of this thing. How he’s learning on the job, the adjustments we’ve seen him make since the first start, fine-tuning things.

“Learning more about the young man, it’s really exciting. You could just look at him being a staple here for a while.”

Schwellenbach changed the Braves’ offseason shopping list. They could address the rotation still – their greatest strength over the past six months – but it’s not really a priority. Max Fried and Charlie Morton are free agents (the latter could very well retire). Strikeout artist Spencer Strider is expected back early next season, though it’s unclear how soon.

So while there are questions, few teams will feel as confident in their starting group entering the winter. President of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos added Sale and Reynaldo Lopez last winter. Both were phenomenal and remain intact for 2025. Strider, when healthy, is always a Cy Young-level talent.

Then there’s Schwellenbach, whose ascent from unknown to godsend gives the Braves four high-upside starters.

“I’ve been super impressed with him,” third baseman Austin Riley told Tthe AJC. “To me, the biggest thing I’ve seen is just his calmness through everything. Sometimes you get the guys who are up for the first time and get a little rattled when things aren’t going their way. He’s taken it by the reins, he’s accepted it and it’s fun to watch. Just the command of all his pitches. He’s making those in-game adjustments when he needs to.

“I would not mind playing behind him every fifth day for a while. I really like the stuff, and I think he’s going to get better as he learns, and he learns his body and pitches. He’s still young, still making those adjustments. He’s going to get better. Praying that he stays healthy.”

Remember how surprising his promotion was? The Braves summoned Schwellenbach from Double-A in late May. He was an unheralded draft pick out of Nebraska, where he was a position player and closer. He hadn’t ranked among the Braves’ clear top prospects, much less the leaguewide top 100. Outside crossing paths in spring training, Braves players wouldn’t have known much about him. Minor-league teammates had an idea – “He’s an incredible pitcher and a good guy,” catcher prospect Drake Baldwin said – but he was mostly hidden from the public eye.

Yet Schwellenbach quietly produced to the point that the Braves, in a desperate place because of injuries, gave him a chance. It’s nothing new for them to turn to their system for immediate help, but this one was way off the radar.

It wound up one of the great moves of this season. Schwellenbach looked like he belonged from Day 1. Ask any Braves fan what they would deem the most pleasant surprise of the season, Schwellenbach will get an immediate mention.

“The first thing that pops in my head is the way he carries himself,” first baseman Matt Olson told the AJC. “He has a really good presence, not only on the mound but in the clubhouse. Being a rookie coming up, it can be a lot. We’ve seen some deer in the headlights before, so to say, and that’s just not the case, the vibe that he gives off. It seems like he’s ready for the moment, not scared of anything. That’s how you have to be.”

Schwellenbach had a 3.35 ERA in 21 starts, striking out 127 and walking 23. He achieved that success despite lacking run support at points, too. His relentless attacking of the strike zone was refreshing for a young pitcher. Sometimes it bit him, but he didn’t back down (“He’s not afraid of anything,” Olson said). That quality is what earned him a look in the first place. It kept him at the highest level.

His Baseball Savant page is as red as a Cornhuskers home game. Notably, his chase rate is in the 96th percentile while his walk rate falls in the 95th percentile, two extremely encouraging outcomes for a player so inexperienced. The idea of Schwellenbach harnessing his abilities is tantalizing.

“He throws a lot of strikes,” Sale said. “He has basically four pitches that are lethal that he can consistently throw for strikes. He’s not afraid of competing. That’s probably the most important thing I’ve seen in my entire career for anybody. Just the willingness to never back down, never give in. It doesn’t matter who’s in the box, what the score is, what’s happened in the game. He’s always in attack mode. Again, just not having a lot of experience in this game, having that mindset already sets him apart from a lot of people.

“Just his poise and the maturity at such a young age. Watching him and how he operates, how he competes, what he’s doing with only having very little experience doing it, just talking with him about college, he was only throwing a couple innings at a time. He was mostly a shortstop. Then getting to pro ball, I think he’s already had more innings this year than he’s had in his life combined as a pitcher. It takes a long time for some guys to evolve into learning how to pitch and using their arsenal in the right ways. You saw it early on, his first handful of starts, he was good. Some of them were rough. But it just knocked him into the lane that he’s in now.

“There’s always a lot of questions with guys leaving or staying or whatever. But to know that he’s going to be here, he’s got the opportunity to be here for a while based on his age, but also his ability. It’s going to be a lot of fun.”