Believe it or not: Falcons beat odds to beat Eagles

There will be oodles of stats, notes and analysis about what unfolded at Lincoln Financial Field on Monday. Here’s perhaps the most eye-popping one: The Eagles had a 97.6% chance of winning, per The 33rd Team, before running back Saquon Barkley (their $37.75 million man) dropped a pass that likely would’ve resulted in a first down, forcing the Eagles into a field goal under the two-minute mark.

When do the Falcons ever win games with a 2.4% chance? This game’s play-by-play should be immortalized in a “Ripley’s Believe it or Not.”

“You can’t ever count us out,” long-time defensive tackle Grady Jarrett said (with a straight face).

Not to overreact to a narrow win over an Eagles team that was down its best offensive player (receiver A.J. Brown), committed nine penalties and made several questionable coaching decisions. But this was somewhat proof of concept, how a game that usually would’ve gone the other way shifted in their favor because their top players come through in crucial moments.

The Falcons entered the season thinking they were playoff contenders. Their hopes were unraveling before the football gods gave them a break.

It was an important win for coach Raheem Morris, who has the locker room’s support but was one first down away from his team already facing a two-game divisional deficit. It was an important win for Cousins coming off his brutal debut. He’s had his share of struggles in prime-time games, too.

Not to pile on discarded quarterback Desmond Ridder, but the Falcons probably aren’t in that game with him starting. There’s a reason they paid Cousins and Bates. There’s a reason they drafted running back Bijan Robinson – he had 122 yards on 18 touches – in the top 10 when conventional wisdom went against it.

Tackle Jake Matthews, drafted in 2014, has endured plenty in this organization over the years. He was asked by The Atlanta Journal-Constitution how this year compares to the recent seasons:

“That’s a tough question because I have seen a lot,” he said. “I don’t know, I’m having a lot of fun this year. I really am. We have a great group and a great leader in Raheem. And just having Kirk here. As I’m getting into my later years, I guess, it’s been a lot of fun. I love the guys in our locker room and our offense. Just the unselfishness and willingness to win any way. That’s special. You don’t see that a lot and I really enjoy that.”

Here’s the same question posed to Bates, who saw the Bengals transform from joke to contender before he joined the Falcons in free agency:

“It’s easy to play for Rah,” he said. “He takes care of us. When it’s time to work, it’s time to work. But when it’s time to step back and focus on the mental part of it, I think that’s what Rah does best. That makes you play harder, I think. It makes you want to play hard for Rah. I’m just happy that he’s my head coach.”

Cornerback A.J. Terrell’s response to the inquiry: “I want to say the culture swing, a lot of new pieces added to the team. Then just the way we attack meetings, practice, just being able to transfer it over to the field. Just having fun, understanding what we have. It’s the chemistry, a new beginning and everything feels fresh.”

This does feel fresh, seeing the Falcons avoid a late meltdown. Seeing the team have the better quarterback with the game on the line. Seeing all the jubilation from coaches and executives in the locker room. They understand what was at stake.

It’s one victory, but it was necessary to avoid a perilous spot in the early season. Now the bigger test comes with Kansas City in a second-straight prime-time game. The odds won’t be in the Falcons’ favor; after a two-game sample in 2024, maybe that’s for the best.