I stuck a fork in the Hawks after Jalen Johnson was ruled out for the season Jan. 24. It turns out they were far from done. The Hawks have become shoo-ins to make the NBA’s play-in tournament for a third consecutive year. Given the state of their competition, the Hawks are a good bet to make it through to the playoffs this time.
Should the Hawks make the playoffs, their likely fate is a loss to the Cavaliers or Celtics in the best-of-seven first round. But the Hawks could make it interesting — they are 2-1 vs. both the Cavs and Celtics. Either way, returning to the playoffs after a two-year absence would be tangible evidence of the team’s improvement, especially since five of their regulars have missed 19 or more games.
The Hawks (32-34) stood seventh in the Eastern Conference after four victories in a row and six in their past nine. They began Thursday five games out of sixth place, the cutoff for automatic playoff, with 26 to play. They play only two games against East teams above them in the standings, so sixth place probably is out of the question.
But the Hawks also are unlikely to slide below 10th, the cutoff for the play-in tournament. They were nine games clear of that spot before Thursday’s games. They have the NBA’s fourth-easiest remaining schedule as measured by opponent winning percentage. The Hawks now have an 84% chance of making the playoffs, according to the number crunchers at ESPN Analytics.
Their playoff chances seemed slim after Johnson was put on the shelf. It’s not as if the Hawks have made massive improvements without him. Still, treading water is a lot better than I thought they could do without Johnson. No other Hawks player has his combination of size, skill, versatility and two-way talent.
It seemed to me that the Hawks were done without him. They weren’t, but in my defense, there were things I couldn’t foresee when he was shut down.
I didn’t know the Hawks would add role players at the trade deadline who would fit seamlessly into the rotation. I didn’t anticipate that their end-of-bench players would handle larger roles so well when needed. I didn’t think that nearly every team in the Eastern Conference outside of the top three would hit the skids at the same time.
Those factors have the Hawks in a strong position to make the playoffs despite the long list of injuries.
“Guys (are) coming in and out of the lineup, but I think our guys have handled it incredibly well,” Hawks coach Quin Snyder said after his team’s victory over the Hornets on Wednesday night.
The Hawks are 9-6 since the trade deadline. The Cavs, Pistons and Celtics are the only East teams to post a better record during that time. Entering Thursday, the Hawks’ four-game win streak was the second longest in the NBA behind the Cavaliers (15).
I didn’t see any of this coming when Johnson was shut down. The Hawks were 22-22 at the time and (per Cleaning the Glass) ranked 16th in offensive efficiency, 16th in defensive efficiency and 20th in efficiency differential. The Hawks are 10-12 since Johnson went on the shelf with rankings of 17th in offensive efficiency, 22nd in defensive efficiency and 18th in differential (all statistics and records before Thursday’s games).
Credit Hawks coaches and the front office for the player additions and player development that have allowed them to stay afloat without Johnson.
Before the trade deadline, the Hawks sent De’Andre Hunter to the Cavaliers for wing Caris LeVert, power forward Georges Niang and draft picks. The Hawks traded Bogdan Bogdanović to the Clippers for wing Terance Mann, guard Nah’Shon “Bones” Hyland and more draft picks. They’ve since waived Hyland, but are getting strong contributions from the other players they acquired.
The three newcomers collectively are giving the Hawks more than they got from Hunter and Bogdanović. It didn’t take long for Levert, Mann and Niang to get acclimated with their new teammates.
“They are veterans, for one thing, and that experience not only is valuable on the floor but valuable in the locker room, in practice settings,” Snyder said. “They are all different players but, as much as anything, every one of them helps our group and lifts us in different ways.”
The newcomers have complemented the improved performance of Hawks players who were here before the trade deadline.
Rookie Zaccharie Risacher’s midseason surge continues. Snyder belatedly started giving Mouhamed Gueye more minutes, and he responded by becoming the team’s best frontcourt defender. Vit Krejci has improved his defense, and his shot was still sharp when he returned from the injured list this week. Center Onyeka Okongwu has hit the sweet spot of increasing his offensive role while remaining an efficient scorer (also, he stopped fouling so much on defense).
At the same time the Hawks figured things out, most of their East rivals have regressed.
The 76ers (22-43) shut down star center Joel Embiid at the end of last month because of his bothersome left knee. The Magic (30-36) somehow started losing more often when superlative big man Paolo Banchero returned from the injured list. Jimmy Butler forced the Heat (29-36) to trade him, and he ended up out West (Warriors). The Bulls (27-38) sold high on Zach LaVine. The listing Pacers (36-28) lost back-to-back games to the Hawks here last week.
As things stand now, the Hawks would be joined in the play-in tournament by the Magic, Heat and Bulls. They would host the 10th-place team and advance to the playoffs with a victory, or get another chance with a loss. The Hawks beat Miami as the No. 10 team in 2023 and lost 4-2 to the Celtics in the first round. Last season, the Hawks lost to the Bulls in the play-in as the No. 10 team.
I doubted the Hawks would even make it to the play-in after Johnson suffered a season-ending shoulder injury. Now it’s plausible they’ll return to the playoffs. It turns out the Hawks were far from done without Johnson.
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