Turns out the joke is on Weekend Predictions. I’ve clowned the Falcons for grinding out close victories, but I’ve been doing the same on picks against the spread. Now the Falcons have the better season winning percentage.
I need an easier target for cheap shots, so my thanks to Georgia Tech.
Falcons (-4) at Saints
The Saints stayed afloat for a while after Drew Brees retired. Now they finally are in shambles. The Saints fired coach Dennis Allen after the lowly Panthers sent them to their seventh consecutive defeat. Former wide receiver Michael Thomas ripped quarterback Derek Carr in a hilarious rant on social media. The roster is old. The salary-cap bill the Saints have pushed off for years comes due next offseason.
The Falcons are in control of the NFC South. Hard to believe that’s true because it’s been so long, but I double-checked. The Falcons (6-3) have a two-game lead with eight to play and a 4-0 division record. Per the OddsShark database, the Falcons are set to be favorites at New Orleans for the first time since 2015. They lost that game on a field goal as time expired. I think the Falcons will win this one, but I’m picking the Saints to cover on account of the weird stuff that happens in this rivalry.
No. 3 Georgia (-2½) at No. 16 Ole Miss
Ole Miss coach Lane Kiffin told reporters that after watching video of Georgia’s defense, he believes its starters are better than an NFL team he’s watched. Kiffin didn’t name the NFL team, but my money is on the Panthers. Kiffin’s comments seems hyperbolic, but if you’ve watched Saints this season, it’s plausible that they couldn’t break 20 points against Georgia.
Bulldogs quarterback Carson Beck ranks last among SEC quarterbacks in interception percentage (11 picks on 290 attempts). Bulldogs coach Kirby Smart keeps pointing out that a few of those aren’t Beck’s fault. That’s true, but it’s also an indictment of the ordinary group of pass-catchers that Smart has assembled in the wake of Brock Bowers and Ladd McConkey heading to the NFL. Ole Miss’ elite defense will get enough stops for the (minor) upset victory.
No. 4 Miami (-11) at Georgia Tech
We’ve heard that the ‘Canes Are Back, Baby many times since they won their most recent national championship (2001). Then they eventually fade back into irrelevance. But now Miami has Cam Ward, who might be the program’s best-ever quarterback. Ward’s daring style reminds me of Patrick Mahomes. Sometimes it goes awry when he takes chances, but when Ward is cooking, he’s hard to stop running and passing.
The Yellow Jackets are going to have to score a lot of points to keep up. They’ll have a much better chance of doing that if Haynes King (shoulder) returns after missing two games and getting a bye week to heal. Georgia Tech’s defense is better than I expected, but Miami has scored 35-plus points against much better groups. The Hurricanes are my pick.
Georgia State (+16½) at James Madison
At least the Panthers have the victory over Vanderbilt. Georgia State has lost five consecutive games since upsetting the Commodores, though only two of those defeats were by more than one score. Give the Panthers credit for competing under the difficult circumstances created when coach Shawn Elliott left to join South Carolina’s following spring practice. But James Madison is very good, so I’ll take the Dukes and give the points.
Other college football games of interest
Florida (+21½) at No. 5 Texas
Playing Georgia even into the fourth quarter probably isn’t enough for Gators fans to get behind coach Billy Napier. He’s all right with me, though, because I had Florida with the points. Per the OddsShark database, the Gators are set to be underdogs of 21 points or more for only the third time since 1990. It will be the second time that’s happened during Napier’s 34 games at Florida. The Gators covered as 23-point ‘dogs at Alabama in 2022, and I’m picking them to do it at Texas.
No. 15 LSU (+3) at No. 11 Alabama
Alabama coach Kalen DeBoer said he didn’t even know the Crimson Tide’s CFP ranking until a reporter asked him about it during the SEC teleconference. It’s hard to believe that’s true, but even harder to think of a good reason why DeBoer would make it up. When SEC coaches lie it’s usually for a good reason, like hiding injuries and job searches. If LSU wins this game, it could take Bama’s place as the two-loss SEC team in the CFP top 12, but I like the Tide to cover.
No. 23 Clemson (-6½) at Virginia Tech
Everybody is focused on Dabo Swinney’s stubborn refusal to use the transfer portal to bolster Clemson’s roster. I’m wondering if Swinney knows how to coach the players he has. Clemson’s offense was weirdly unhurried after falling behind by three touchdowns to Louisville on Saturday night, then Swinney went against math by declining to try for a two-point conversion. The Hokies have been good at home, so naturally, I’m taking them and the points.
Other NFL games of interest
49ers (-5½) at Buccaneers
All-Pro running back Christian McCaffrey (Achilles) could make his season debut for the 49ers, which would boost coach Kyle Shanahan’s chances of making it to the playoffs and blowing a lead. The Bucs lost in overtime at Kansas City in Week 9 after coach Todd Bowles decided to kick an extra point to tie with 30 seconds left in regulation. “We wanted to get into overtime with the wet conditions on the field,” Bowles told reporters, who presumably responded with confused looks. Tampa Bay is my pick.
Giants (-6 ½) at Panthers
Giants co-owner John Mara told reporters that he won’t fire coach Brian Daboll during the season. Daboll probably shouldn’t be so sure about that now that he’s facing Carolina’s coach killers. Ex-Falcons coach Arthur Smith pretty much sealed his fate with a loss at Carolina in Week 15 last season. Losing to the Panthers was the final straw for Allen’s bosses in New Orleans. Taking the Panthers and the points worked out for me last week, so I’ll push my luck by doing it again.
Broncos (+8) at Chiefs
I try to avoid letting my personal feelings influence my picks. I should have leaned into my dislike of Denver coach Sean Payton in Week 9. He got humbled in Baltimore, and I couldn’t even enjoy it because I backed the Broncos as underdogs. Now Denver is facing another quality opponent that tends to mess around. The Chiefs are 2-2 as home favorites this season. I say they’ll be 3-2 after covering against Denver.
Last week: 6-4. Season: 50-47-1.
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