The Falcons are winning again. Weekend Predictions isn’t. I’ve been a loser on picks against the spread in four of the past five weeks. Unfortunately, I can’t make a quarterback change. I’m stuck with myself.
Three of the four College Football Playoff games will be played Wednesday. That makes them midweek predictions, strictly speaking. But with the major holidays falling on Wednesdays, we decided as a society that the weekend started Dec. 20 and will end Jan 6. I submit that it should be that way every year.
Falcons (+4) at Commanders
The Falcons are back in control of the NFC South. Good thing they have no history of blowing leads. I don’t have much room to talk about the Falcons, but I will. It’s much harder to beat oddsmakers than it is to win the South. The division is shaping up not to be much better next season unless Michael Penix Jr. is the answer for the Falcons at quarterback. They have to luck into getting a big decision right at some point.
The Commanders appear to have gotten it right with quarterback Jayden Daniels. (I’m hedging a bit because we’ve seen lots of promising rookie QBs fall off in later years.) He’s a big reason why ex-Falcons coach Dan Quinn is on track to lead a second team to the playoffs. The Commanders will clinch with a victory. I say they will do so, but the Falcons will cover the spread.
Sugar Bowl (New Orleans, College Football Playoff quarterfinal): Notre Dame (+2) vs. Georgia
Notre Dame’s brand carried a lot of weight when the CFP selection committee had to decide which four teams would generate the most revenue. That’s changed with the 12-team field. The Fighting Irish earned their way into the playoff with a home loss to Northern Illinois and one victory against a team ranked in the final CFP poll (No. 22 Army). The Irish proved they belonged with a 10-point victory against football-power Indiana in the first round.
Bettors can’t seem to accept that Georgia isn’t as dominant as in the past three years. The Bulldogs are 4-9 against the spread this season. Per Vegas Insider, that’s tied for the eighth worst mark among FBS teams. Now Georgia is favored against Notre Dame even though quarterback Gunner Stockton is subbing for Carson Beck. I believe the Bulldogs should be favored by more points, and when have I ever been wrong? Georgia is my pick to cover.
Birmingham Bowl: Georgia Tech (-3) vs. Vanderbilt
A bowl game close to home sounds great in the abstract. The reality of this one isn’t so great for the Yellow Jackets. Birmingham in December isn’t a getaway to a warm, lively locale. The Jackets arrived in Birmingham on Monday and were treated to a comedy and hypnosis show. Not sure how they had the energy to practice the next morning after that wild time.
The four Tech starters who decided to transfer include stars on offense and defense, wide receiver Eric Singleton Jr. (Auburn) and linebacker Romello Height (Texas Tech). Two of Tech’s defensive starters are out because of injuries. Quarterback Haynes King is healthy and ready to play. That’s why I like the Jackets to win, but their attrition makes me side with Vandy getting points.
Other CFP quarterfinals games:
Fiesta Bowl (Glendale, Ariz.): Penn State (-11) vs. Boise State
Boise State is the biggest beneficiary of the byes awarded to four conference champions. At least Arizona State has two wins against teams ranked in the final CFP poll. The Broncos beat No. 24 UNLV, but their best result is a close loss at top-seeded Oregon. Penn State’s close loss to Oregon happened on a neutral field. I’m taking Boise State with the points, based on results against the common opponent.
Peach Bowl (Mercedes-Benz Stadium): Texas (-13½) vs. Arizona State
Texas beat Clemson by two touchdowns in the first round. That didn’t seem to quiet detractors who question whether the Longhorns truly are championship-caliber. Maybe it just seems that way to me because I’m always hearing what Georgia fans are saying. The Longhorns are hard to trust as big favorites because of their habit of dawdling with leads. The Sun Devils are hard to trust even when getting so many points because Texas is on a different level. I like the Longhorns to cover.
Rose Bowl (Pasadena, Calif.): Ohio State (-2½) vs. Oregon
Everybody figured this rematch would happen in the Big Ten Championship game. In retrospect, no one should have counted on Buckeyes coach Ryan Day beating Michigan. Oregon beat visiting Ohio State by a point in October. The Ducks prevailed after coach Dan Lanning took advantage of a rules loophole that since has been closed. That game was evidence that these teams are evenly matched. My foolproof approach is to take the underdog in such cases. The Ducks will cover.
Other bowl games of interest
ReliaQuest Bowl (Tampa): Alabama (-12½) vs. Michigan
It’s been funny watching Alabama athletic director Greg Byrne tell everyone that the Crimson Tide are afraid of competition. Byrne said Bama would reconsider scheduling nonconference Power 4 teams after it was left out of the CFP field (the Tide played one P4 opponent outside of the SEC this season, Wisconsin, and lost to two teams that finished 6-6). A couple of weeks later Byrne said the Tide needed to “fight back” on NIL because other teams were luring away their players. Poor Bama just can’t catch a break. Michigan lost the battle of bowl-game attrition, so I’m taking the Tide and giving the points.
Texas Bowl (Houston): Baylor (-2) vs. LSU
Notre Dame didn’t win its first CFP game until after Brian Kelly left for LSU. It was a first-round game in the newly expanded field, but I’m not going to let that detail stop me from taking a shot at Kelly. He’s changed the subject from his 28-11 record at LSU by cleaning up in the transfer portal. Kelly can earn more benefit of the doubt by winning a bowl game for the third consecutive year. The task got harder when star offensive tackles Will Campbell and Emery Jones decided to skip this game to get ready for the NFL draft. Baylor is my pick.
Other NFL games of interest
Panthers (+7½) at Buccaneers
The Bucs lost control of the NFC South with a mistake-filled loss at Dallas on Sunday. Tampa Bay’s pass catchers kept taking big hits because QB Baker Mayfield was throwing late passes across the middle for minimal gains. They should have stopped catching balls in protest of their working conditions. The Bucs escaped with an overtime victory at Carolina in Week 13. The Panthers are playing better now, but I think the Bucs will take care of business in the rematch and cover the spread.
Raiders (-1½) at Saints
The Saints lost 34-0 at Green Bay on Monday night. At least they made it clear early that they wouldn’t be competitive. I didn’t have to waste any more time watching and hoping that they could cover 14 points. Rookie QB Spencer Rattler has struggled in relief of Derek Carr. The Saints won’t pick high enough in the draft to take a top QB prospect, and their cap situation means they could be stuck with Carr. Good luck finding a top coach to take on this mess. I’m picking New Orleans again because, apparently, I never learn from my mistakes.
Last week: 4-6. Season: 78-79-1.
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