Gunner Stockton, not Carson Beck, will start at quarterback for Georgia in the College Football Playoff quarterfinals. Notre Dame is outstanding at stopping the pass, and Stockton hasn’t thrown one of consequence in college. That’s the best reason to believe the Fighting Irish can beat the Bulldogs, who opened as consensus one-point favorites to win the Sugar Bowl on Jan. 1.
I get all that. But there’s another circumstance that matters more than Georgia missing its quarterbacks. Since Kirby Smart built the program to championship-caliber, the Bulldogs just don’t lose to nonconference opponents. It’s not as if they haven’t played plenty of good ones. The Bulldogs are 4-0 in CFP games against teams from outside of the SEC.
That past performance doesn’t guarantee the Bulldogs will beat Notre Dame. But I think current conditions set them up for that future result even though their quarterback is inexperienced. The edge of playing in the SEC might mean more than ever this season.
Everybody knows this Georgia team isn’t as good as the past three, even with Beck under center. Smart said as much after the Bulldogs won the SEC Championship game. But Smart also said this is the toughest team he’s coached at Georgia. That’s not just chest-thumping bravado. The Bulldogs have proved it by slogging through a tough schedule to make the playoff.
The Irish don’t know what that’s like. They didn’t play any of the teams in the CFP field during the regular season. Notre Dame played only one team in the final Top 25, No. 23 Army. Georgia has played four games against teams in the CFP field and won all four. The Bulldogs lost at No. 11 Alabama and No. 14 Ole Miss. Notre Dame lost at home to Northern Illinois.
The Irish have won 11 games in a row since that embarrassing loss. Only one was by a margin of less than 10 points. Notre Dame dominated Indiana in the first-round game Friday night. Quarterback Riley Leonard is a big part of Notre Dame’s strong running game and has improved his passing. Notre Dame’s defense rarely allows big plays, creates lots of turnover chances and is great on third downs.
The Irish are a very good team. They just haven’t been tested nearly as much as Georgia. For the Bulldogs, Notre Dame is just another great defense to conquer. Leonard is only the latest good quarterback for them to fluster.
Before facing Indiana, the Irish ranked No. 5 in ESPN analyst Bill Connelly’s defensive SP+ metric (efficiency adjusted for opponent and situation). The Bulldogs have played four games against top-five defensive teams and faced just two bottom-tier (UMass and Mississippi State). We’ve seen them grind to victory against opponents who yield little.
The Irish have put up big offensive numbers (No. 3 in scoring) but how will they react with Georgia’s 11th-ranked defense makes it hard? They don’t have much experience with that. They’ve faced only two top SP+ top 20 defenses (Texas A&M and Indiana) and six teams ranked 60th or lower. We’ve seen them fly to victories against opponents who yield plenty.
Notre Dame can churn out yards on the ground. Leonard and running backs Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Prince operate behind a big and physical offensive line. That describes multiple teams in the SEC. Georgia had trouble slowing some of them, but Texas (twice), Ole Miss and Tennessee had a hard time finding room to run against the Bulldogs.
Stockton is the wild card. Beck’s performance fell off this season, but he was on the come lately. Now, Stockton will make his first collegiate start against a great defense. But he’ll have more help than Beck did lately. Running back Trevor Etienne returned to play in the SEC Championship game after a month on the injury list and looked great while compiling 122 total yards and two touchdowns.
The Sugar Bowl is setting up to be a grind. That suits the Bulldogs. It’s SEC-style football. Nonconference opponents haven’t been able to match it against Georgia. Texas is the only one to beat the Bulldogs since the start of the 2017 season, in the 2019 Sugar Bowl. Georgia’s 4-0 CFP record against non-SEC teams includes victories against some of the best teams ever produced by those programs.
Oklahoma lost to Georgia with Heisman Trophy winner Baker Mayfield at quarterback. Georgia tallied CFP victories over Ohio State and Michigan when those teams had future high NFL draft picks at quarterback, J.J. McCarthy and C.J. Stroud. Outside of the CFP, the Bulldogs beat Oregon when it had QB Bo Nix, who is having a fine rookie season for the Broncos (the Falcons are among his victims).
The Bulldogs just don’t lose to teams that aren’t in their league, no matter how good those teams may be. Maybe that changes now that UGA has slipped a bit. It’s more likely that the Bulldogs will beat Notre Dame and whichever non-SEC team advances from the bottom of their bracket. They may be playing a backup at quarterback, but they are sharpened by the SEC grind.
