Kemp will not run for U.S. Senate, igniting a GOP scramble in Georgia race

The governor said he told President Donald Trump and senior Senate Republicans he would help ensure we “have a strong Republican nominee who can win next November, and ultimately be a conservative voice in the U.S. Senate who will put hardworking Georgians first.”

“I am confident we will be united in that important effort,” said Kemp, who could deploy a nationwide political network and an extensive fundraising machine behind another contender.

“And I look forward to electing the next generation of leaders up and down the ballot here in the Peach State who will keep our state and nation headed in the right direction in 2026 and beyond.”

Though some allies of the second-term Republican long doubted he would run, the uncertainty froze for months the race against Ossoff, whom Republicans see as one of the most vulnerable incumbents on the ballot next year.

A new AJC poll reinforced why Kemp was so heavily recruited. He tallied a 60% approval rating and was the only Republican of four in the survey who was neck and neck with Ossoff in a hypothetical matchup.

With Kemp on the sidelines, a scramble is now underway over who will emerge as the GOP nominee in a race that could hinge on Trump, as recent polls show eroding support in Georgia for his agenda.

The decision also leaves open the possibility of a future bid by the 61-year-old Republican for the White House. The governor, who cannot seek a third term, aims to keep his political options open even as he steers clear of a Senate campaign.

Top Republicans made clear they were waiting on Kemp’s decision before launching their own bids. Now, a chain reaction is expected. Some likely contenders have already hired aides, courted donors, met with Trump advisers and taken other quiet steps to lay the groundwork for a campaign. Formal announcements could come quickly.

Credit: Jenni Girtman

Credit: Jenni Girtman

U.S. Reps. Buddy Carter, Mike Collins, Marjorie Taylor Greene and Rich McCormick; Insurance Commissioner John King; and Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger are among the potential contenders.

But none have Kemp’s combination of fundraising ability, name recognition, broad GOP support and crossover appeal. And some Republicans are already fretting about a messy GOP free-for-all — particularly if Greene, a polarizing Trump loyalist, enters a race that could be decided by middle-of-the-road voters.

They’re also wary of a repeat of 2022, when untested football legend Herschel Walker coasted to the GOP nomination only to collapse against Democratic U.S. Sen. Raphael Warnock.

The AJC poll found that Ossoff holds commanding leads over three other prominent GOP figures from across the political spectrum: Greene, King and Raffensperger.

Ossoff, meanwhile, has worked aggressively to shore up his support from both reliable Democrats and the swing voters who could decide the race. He’s the only incumbent Senate Democrat running for reelection next year in a state Trump won, making him the top GOP target in 2026 — something he leans into in fundraising pitches.

The first-term Democrat helped orchestrate the ouster of U.S. Rep. Nikema Williams as state Democratic Party chair, endorsed her eventual successor in hopes of boosting the organization’s financial firepower, and amassed an $11 million fundraising haul over the first three months of the year.

He’s echoing Democrats who demand a more confrontational approach. He’s also centered his campaign message on opposition to Trump and his government-shrinking agenda, reflecting demands from his party’s base.

At a town hall in Cobb County last month, Ossoff unloaded on Trump’s deep cuts to the Atlanta-based Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. At an earlier rally in Atlanta, he vowed to fight Trump’s norm-shattering administration and declared that “Georgia will bow to no king.”

The AJC poll shows Ossoff with a solid favorability rate at 48%, with room to grow. Although about one-third disapprove of how he’s handling his U.S. Senate job, nearly 1 in 5 say they don’t yet have an opinion.

The same poll suggests Ossoff is largely shielded from the internal backlash facing national Democrats. About 15% of liberals disapprove of his performance — half the share who view the Democratic Party itself unfavorably.

Credit: Jenni Girtman for the AJC

Credit: Jenni Girtman for the AJC

But he’ll also face powerful crosscurrents in Georgia’s shifting political landscape. Ossoff’s 2021 runoff victory alongside Warnock flipped control of the U.S. Senate and marked a high point for Georgia Democrats.

Since then, Republicans have been on the upswing. Warnock staved off Walker in 2022 to secure a full term, but the GOP swept every other statewide race that year — and Trump recaptured Georgia in 2024 after narrowly losing it four years earlier.

‘Another vote in the Senate’

Kemp’s decision is a massive blow to Republicans who are desperate to avoid what could be a damaging free-for-all for the party’s nomination.

U.S. Sen. Tim Scott, the head of the Senate’s GOP campaign arm, called Kemp his “No. 1 recruit.” Senate Majority Leader John Thune lobbied him several times, including at an April meeting in Atlanta.

And each of the potential GOP contenders in Georgia publicly urged him to challenge the 38-year-old Democrat, who first came to prominence with his narrow defeat in a 2017 special election for a GOP-held U.S. House seat in Atlanta’s northern suburbs.

Credit: Nathan Posner for the AJC

Credit: Nathan Posner for the AJC

“I support the Draft Kemp movement. Our governor can win that seat,” Collins said recently. “But if he takes a pass, I’ll talk with President Trump and see who he needs us to support to make sure he has another vote in the Senate.”

A new phase

The public recruiting effort was a remarkable sign of Kemp’s political turnaround. Trump and his allies blamed Kemp and other GOP officials for Trump’s 2020 defeat in Georgia and backed former U.S. Sen. David Perdue’s challenge against him in 2022.

But Kemp routed Perdue in the GOP primary and then defeated Democrat Stacey Abrams for a second time, cementing himself as a national GOP figure.

The feud with Trump that threatened to derail his career is now in the rearview. The truce they reached last year has held, and Kemp’s profile has grown with his election last year to lead the Republican Governors Association. In a sign of the improving relationship, officials say the governor’s conversation with Trump about his decision on Monday was cordial and productive.

The latest AJC poll showed that Kemp’s high approval rating was fueled by support from Republicans and independents as well as favorable reviews from roughly one-third of Democrats.

And he flexed his political clout this legislative session to pass an overhaul of Georgia’s legal system to limit lawsuits and rein in big jury awards.

But Ossoff’s allies still saw Kemp is vulnerable. If he had run, they planned to relentlessly connect him to Trump, who had a 43% approval in the latest AJC poll. They also were confident his popularity would take a hit once he drew the barrage of Democratic attacks that would surely come with a Senate campaign.

With Kemp out of the race, the Republican jockeying will only intensify. King has emerged as a vocal defender of Trump’s tariffs, while Carter turned heads by introducing a measure to let the president negotiate U.S. control of Greenland and rename it “Red, White and Blueland.”

And Collins has been among the most aggressive. His allies have already sought to win Trump’s endorsement, and he’s been a constant at political events across Georgia, including a weekend rally that drew hundreds of supporters.

“All Jon Ossoff wants to talk about is resistance and impeaching President Trump,” Collins told Republicans at the Covington event. “All I want to talk about doing is delivering results that make our country great again.”