AJC poll: Kemp neck and neck with Ossoff in possible Georgia Senate matchup

Kemp, whose approval rating sits at 60%, is the only Republican in the survey who polls close to Ossoff. The Democrat holds commanding leads over three other prominent figures from across the GOP spectrum, including firebrand U.S. Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene.

In a head-to-head race, Kemp and Ossoff are deadlocked within the poll’s margin of error of 3.1 percentage points, with Kemp at 49% and Ossoff at 46%.

Kemp’s approval rating is bolstered by strong support from independents and even a third of Democrats. That puts him nearly 20 points ahead of President Donald Trump and reinforces recent AJC polls showing the Republican is one of the most well-liked figures in Georgia politics.

It’s unclear whether Trump’s plummeting approval numbers will rub off on Kemp, who has supported the president’s priorities. The AJC poll shows many parts of that agenda — including tariffs and his immigration policies — are opposed by the majority of Georgians.

And popularity and pressure don’t guarantee a campaign.

Kemp has quietly weighed a bid for months, telling supporters he’s doing his “due diligence” as he considers a move that could reshape Georgia politics.

Some of Kemp’s allies privately doubt he’ll run. Others note he hasn’t ruled it out. Some figure he’s angling for a presidential run instead. That uncertainty has frozen the field, even as the AJC’s poll underscores just how competitive the race could become.

Given Kemp’s political strength, other potential GOP candidates have encouraged the governor to run. But some also see an opening against Ossoff, the only Senate Democrat on the 2026 ballot in a state Trump won.

They face a steep challenge. Ossoff has a 48-39 edge over Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger, the elections chief who won national attention for rejecting Trump’s demand to overturn Georgia’s 2020 results.

He posts a wider 51-38 lead over Insurance Commissioner John King, a military veteran who is the first Latino constitutional officer in Georgia history.

Ossoff’s strongest advantage comes against Greene, the polarizing Trump ally and ultraconservative congresswoman from northwest Georgia. In that hypothetical matchup, Ossoff leads 54-37, thanks to support from 60% of independents and nearly 10% of Trump voters.

Credit: Nathan Posner for the AJC

Credit: Nathan Posner for the AJC

The AJC poll shows Ossoff with a solid favorability rate at 48%, with room to grow. Although about one-third disapprove of how he’s handling his U.S. Senate job, nearly 1 in 5 say they don’t yet have an opinion.

Other potential contenders, including U.S. Reps. Buddy Carter of Pooler and Mike Collins of Jackson, were not included in the poll but have also taken steps toward possible bids.

But it’s Kemp who remains the party’s most coveted contender — as U.S. Sen. Tim Scott put it, the GOP’s “No. 1 recruit” — because he’s a conservative favorite with proven crossover appeal.

Clyde Zackery, a plumber from Woodstock, exemplifies the quandary for Republicans. He said he’s likely to vote for Kemp if he runs. But if the governor declines to run, he said he’s likely to back Ossoff’s reelection campaign.

“He might be able to have a little persuasion to help other senators vote for things more favorable for our state,” Zackery said of Kemp.

Some Republicans already fret about a messy GOP free-for-all if he doesn’t enter the race. Nor do they want a repeat of 2022, when an untested Herschel Walker steamrolled through the GOP primary only to collapse in the general election.

Credit: TNS

Credit: TNS

Stephen Lawson, a longtime GOP operative, is among the party stalwarts encouraging the governor to take the plunge.

“If Brian Kemp runs for the U.S. Senate, Brian Kemp will be the next U.S. Senator from Georgia,” Lawson said.

“But if he takes a pass, Republicans should be much more judicious about who the nominee is, given the uncertain political environment and the fact that Jon Ossoff has proven he will be a formidable opponent.”

For Kemp, the encouraging numbers also show how his political fortunes have shifted since the 2020 election, when he was pilloried by Trump and fellow Republicans who accused him of not doing enough to reverse the GOP’s defeat.

Kemp solidified his GOP base of support during the 2022 primary, trouncing a Trump-backed rival. And he forged a coalition of conservative supporters and swing voters to defeat Democrat Stacey Abrams for a second time.

Now the Kemp-Trump feud that threatened to derail the governor’s ambitions is fading. After striking a campaign truce last year, their alliance has so far held fast — though there’s no telling if that could change.

Every other potential GOP candidate, including Greene, has publicly said they hope the governor runs.

And because he hasn’t launched a campaign, Kemp hasn’t drawn the barrage of Democratic attacks seeking to dent his popularity that would surely come with a Senate campaign.

Ossoff, for his part, said he’s ready for whoever emerges. He reported $11 million in his campaign coffers this month, setting an early benchmark for what could be the nation’s costliest Senate contest.

And he’s worked to sharpen his bipartisan appeal while casting himself as a bulwark against Trump. Expect him to tie any GOP opponent to the president’s government-shrinking agenda — a platform opposed by a majority of Georgians, according to the AJC’s poll.

Credit: Atlanta Journal-Constitution

Credit: Atlanta Journal-Constitution

The messaging is already surfacing on the campaign trail. At a town hall last week, Ossoff publicly challenged Kemp to oppose mass layoffs at the Atlanta-based Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, a key target of Trump’s proposed cuts.

The same poll indicates Ossoff is largely insulated from some of the internal backlash facing other Democrats. Only about 15% of liberals disapprove of his performance — half the share who hold a negative perception of the Democratic Party itself.

Amanda Brown of Marietta is among the two-thirds of liberals who gave Ossoff high marks.

“He’s more measured. I give him more leeway,” said Brown, a product manager. “He isn’t going to be the next Bernie Sanders, but he’s doing what he can.”

Staff writer Mark Niesse contributed to this report.