Stacey Abrams considers third run for governor as some Georgia Democrats move on

Eight years ago, Stacey Abrams delivered a speech at an Atlanta union hall that channeled the liberal outrage over President Donald Trump’s first term in office into her own budding campaign for Georgia’s top job.

Now Trump is in his second term, Republicans are ascendant again in Georgia and Abrams is at the center of speculation over whether she will mount a third campaign for governor after back-to-back defeats to Gov. Brian Kemp.

Unlike her 2022 rematch against Kemp, however, Georgia Democrats aren’t stepping aside. State Sen. Jason Esteves entered the race earlier this week and former Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms is expected to follow. Others could join, too.

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And unlike her last run, long an open secret, Abrams and her deputies are staying silent about her plans. Most insiders doubt she’ll run again, but she has not ruled it out. Republicans are openly goading her to take the plunge.

Meanwhile, Abrams sounds much like she did ahead of her 2018 campaign. Speaking to a crowd of young Black women recently in Atlanta, she said Democrats must “never let a good crisis go to waste” and mobilize around Trump’s policies.

“You are the ones who will see what is broken, and instead of trying to repair what was already a shoddy system, you will build a better one, the right one, the thing we should have had when we began,” she said.

Much has changed for Abrams since her 2022 defeat to Kemp. Once the unquestioned leader of state Democrats, U.S. Sens. Jon Ossoff and Raphael Warnock — along with other rising figures — have taken the party’s mantle. And much of the infrastructure she built has eroded.

Credit: AJC

Credit: AJC

The New Georgia Project, the voter registration group she founded, was hit with a record $300,000 fine in January for violating state campaign finance laws and is now facing state and federal scrutiny. Its leader resigned, and many staffers were laid off.

Fair Fight, the political organization she launched to support her second campaign, slashed staff and narrowed its mission last year amid mounting legal expenses. The group is now in a rebuilding phase.

And Abrams is no longer the feared candidate she once was for Republicans, who eagerly paint today’s Democratic contenders as Abrams acolytes. Cody Hall, a Kemp adviser, practically pleaded for her to enter the race, saying the “third time is the charm.”

“Every Georgia Democrat is scared to death Abrams runs again because they know they can’t beat her in the primary,” he said. “But she’s also probably their worst candidate in the general.”

‘Can she match this moment?’

That view is far from neutral, but it reflects a deeper tension within the party: A mix of admiration for Abrams’ role in reviving Georgia Democrats and anxiety that she is too polarizing to ever win the state’s top office.

Her sky-high name recognition, robust fundraising network and national prominence would make her a de facto front-runner against almost any primary opponent in a vote dominated by Black Democrats. She still commands headlines and cable news airtime with ease.

And there’s no question her narrow defeat in the 2018 campaign against Kemp helped lay the foundation for Democratic gains in the next two election cycles, campaigns that flipped Georgia blue for the first time in decades and vaulted Ossoff and Warnock to the Senate.

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But her unabashed liberal platform and relentless GOP attacks have taken a toll on the swing voters who help decide Georgia races. Her rematch against Kemp in 2022 ended in a resounding defeat, thanks partly to split-ticket voters who backed Warnock but rejected her.

Though she hasn’t been on the ballot since then, the attacks have not stopped. Trump in March singled her out during an address to Congress — a reminder of her enduring role as a GOP foil.

Credit: Arvin Temkar/AJC

Still, inside the Democratic Party, Abrams remains a force. Jason Carter, the party’s 2014 gubernatorial nominee, noted Abrams remains popular with Democratic voters in Georgia and the out-of-state donors who increasingly power Georgia campaigns.

“The question is how durable is her popularity among that rank-and-file at this point?” said Carter, who this week decided not to join the race. “Can she match this moment better than she matched the moment the other two times?”

Abrams fatigue

Such is her staying power that party leaders remain reluctant to criticize her, mindful that her inner circle doesn’t easily forget rebukes. But Esteves, who entered the race Monday, made clear he wouldn’t be in it if he didn’t believe he could succeed where Abrams failed.

“This campaign is not about names,” he said in an interview with The Atlanta Journal-Constitution. “It’s about Georgia. It’s about us, and it’s going to be about making sure that we have a leader that comes out of this primary who can build a coalition that can actually win the state.”

Former DeKalb County Chief Executive Michael Thurmond, another potential contender, said it’ll take a different kind of candidate to win against Attorney General Chris Carr, Lt. Gov. Burt Jones or any other GOP contender that wins the nomination.

“There’s a path, but it’s a very narrow path for Democrats in 2026. And it’s a path no Democrat has taken recently,” said Thurmond. “I’m not under some false illusion this will be a cakewalk for anyone.”

Credit: arvin.temkar@ajc.com

In an informal survey of 30 Democratic activists, several echoed DeKalb County Democratic Committee chair Brandi Wyche, who said Abrams has earned the right to choose her own path.

“As an influential party leader and two-time gubernatorial candidate, Stacey would be a strong and qualified candidate in any race she chooses to run,” she said, “or be an influential supporter of another Democratic candidate, if she so chooses.”

But many said they were suffering from Abrams fatigue.

“She’s run twice, and that’s enough to convince me she won’t win,” said Jimmy Johnson, former chair of the Appling County Democratic Committee. “Can some other Democrat win? Yes, if there is a candidate who can hold 90% of the Black vote and attract rural voters and somehow overcome the GOP’s very effective whisper campaign.”

Pete Fuller, chair of Jackson County Democrats, credited Abrams with mobilizing disengaged voters and helping turn Georgia into a battleground state. But he said he hopes to see a new wave of Democrats run.

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“Iron sharpens iron,” he said. “And primaries can expose weaknesses, build name recognition and put candidates into shape long before the general.”

And Marilyn Langford, a vice-chair of the 9th Congressional District, put it bluntly: “Abrams is great, but she missed the train.”

Abrams and her allies declined comment. But some Democrats see her as a break-the-glass candidate if Bottoms, Esteves or other candidates falter on the campaign trail or fail to raise significant cash. The June 30 fundraising report will be an important test.

Some just want clarity. Aaron Whitely, chair of the Chatham County Democratic Committee, said he has no problem backing her again. But he hopes she makes up her mind quickly.

“If she chooses not to run,” he added, “I hope she shares that sooner than later so we as a party can begin to vet and prepare for a primary.”