It’s that time again.
The Falcons take on a dreadfully dysfunctional Miami Dolphins team Sunday at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. The home team is a 7.5-point favorite — but let’s take a look at some of the other prop bets out there to get a better grasp of what we’re dealing with.
EASY: Bijan Robinson, 17.5 rushing attempts
The Bijan yardage totals and scoring props are getting a little stale, so let’s spice it up. Or maybe make it more boring? Not sure.
Either way, here’s the deal:
- The Miami defense is allowing nearly 160 rushing yards per game. That’s worst in the NFL.
- In the Falcons’ three losses, Robinson has charted 12, 13 and 14 carries.
- In the three wins: 22, 19 and 17.
A failure to put the ball directly in his hands as many times as humanly possible this week would amount to coaching malfeasance. Which, you know … isn’t unheard of around here.
But as AJC columnist Michael Cunningham wrote earlier this week: just feed the man, man.
INTERESTING: Michael Penix Jr., 1.5 passing touchdowns
This one’s got a real unstoppable force vs. immovable object vibe going on. To wit:
- In terms of yardage, the Dolphins defense is actually pretty good against the pass (about 204 yards per game, 11th in the NFL) … but overall, Miami opponents are scoring nearly 30 points per game.
- The Falcons offense puts up plenty o’ yards … but is only scoring about 18 points per game.
Penix, meanwhile, has a bone-bruised knee and just two career games with more than one passing touchdown. But he has been much better at home than on the road this season (103 passer rating at the Benz; 66.5 elsewhere).
Plug your nose and take the under.
OUT THERE: Total points scored, 44.5
Is a basic over/under really, truly “out there?” Nope. But reader: I’ve got no earthly idea how to handicap this one.
While neither team scores much (Dolphins: 20 points per game), both teams possess individual offensive pieces to do so. Theoretically. Sometimes.
Given each team’s defensive vulnerabilities (the Falcons’ otherwise solid unit didn’t look great after linebacker Divine Deablo departed with a fractured forearm against the 49ers), a 27-24 type of final score seems possible.
But I also wouldn’t be surprised if it was, like, 13-9.
Let’s go under.
Odds are sourced from DraftKings Sportsbook and BetMGM and are subject to change. The content provided is intended solely for informational and entertainment purposes. It does not constitute professional advice or the promotion or endorsement of gambling in any form.
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