The coming coaching carousel will reshape SEC and college football

Ole Miss coach Lane Kiffin is at the center of that dialogue, reportedly the Gators’ top target and surely a possibility for LSU, too. It’s a testament to Kiffin, who didn’t receive serious consideration from either school when their posts were open four years ago.

Many argue Kiffin might be best off staying in Oxford, where he’s assembled an SEC powerhouse in an era defined by NIL and the transfer portal (Nick Saban himself has wondered this). Kiffin has greatly benefited from both areas: Ole Miss was ahead of the curve in its NIL setup, while the transfer portal has been pivotal to adding NFL-caliber talent to the offense and the defense in recent years.

The question remains, though: Can one win a title at Ole Miss? Can one sustain success? The answer will come in time, but it’s much easier to envision a yes answer to each of those inquiries than it would have been a decade ago. And at 7-1 with a manageable schedule remaining, it seems Kiffin will get his first chance at the College Football Playoff in December.

The counterpoint is that winning championships and sustaining success should theoretically be easier at LSU and Florida. The fertile recruiting grounds matter, though so much recruiting is done through a checkbook now that it might not carry the weight it once did. Kiffin has also expressed frustration at times with fan support at Ole Miss home games; that wouldn’t be in an issue in Baton Rouge or Gainesville.

Ole Miss enthusiasts would push back on that by citing Kiffin’s recent success and acknowledging that he has it made there. He won’t be run off for a down season, and the expectations are more modest than at the traditional contenders. He’s also seemed genuinely happy there with his family, admittedly making adjustments recent years that have led to a healthier lifestyle.

Indeed, Kiffin staying in Mississippi and continuing his trajectory would almost certainly lead to him getting a statue outside the stadium. Meanwhile, LSU’s situation appears a political mess while Florida has its own such issues.

Kiffin said this week on The Pat McAfee Show that his decision won’t come down to money (much to the chagrin of his super agent, Jimmy Sexton). It’ll come down to happiness. That’s easy for Kiffin to say, because he’s going to be one of the top-paid coaches regardless of his decision.

Kiffin has numerous ties to Florida, so perhaps the ethos there wins out. Florida seems primed to pay him a record deal if he wants it. He idolized legendary Gators coach Steve Spurrier, who speaks well of Kiffin: “I firmly think he is a very good coach,” Spurrier told USA Today. “There’s no question about that. I like him.”

Layla, the mother of Kiffin’s children, is from Gainesville and the daughter of former Florida quarterback John Reaves. Kiffin’s father Monte, of course, is a legendary figure in the state for his Tampa-2 defense with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Kiffin also recently succeeded at Florida Atlantic, leading to his nod as Ole Miss coach.

Or maybe Kiffin ultimately feels so “at home” with Ole Miss that so long as he’s properly compensated and given the necessary resources, he’ll stay. There might be charm to Florida, but there’s plenty of logic in the grass-isn’t-always-greener approach, too.

That’s all said without even getting into LSU, which would equip him with championship-caliber rosters every year without breaking a sweat.

So much focus on Kiffin has almost made Penn State’s opening an afterthought down here in the South. But it isn’t nationally. That’s a premier job with rich resources in one of the two conferences with true power. They’ll be taking their own big swings.

How appetizing are all these openings? It varies by the individual, but it never has been murkier in college athletics. The playing field has leveled tremendously.

Indiana is the No. 2 team in the country and almost certainly will make the College Football Playoff for a second straight year. The doubters were quelled when the Hoosiers won a couple of weeks ago in Oregon, the program with more riches than any other courtesy of Phil Knight. Coach Curt Cignetti already signed an extension.

Texas Tech spent lavishly on a Big 12 contender and its ROI is a 7-1 record that has it poised for a conference championship game appearance. The AP Top 25 also includes nontraditional powers Georgia Tech (8), Vanderbilt (9), BYU (11) and Virginia (15).

Yes, Tech’s Brent Key is part of the coaching conversation. He has the Yellow Jackets undefeated and in the driver’s seat for the ACC championship game. He’s an alum who takes true pride in Tech. But it needs to continue supplying him with the necessary tools to sustain success (the school has done that so far and has indicated it will continue doing so).

If Indiana can have multiyear success, why can’t Tech? Why can’t, say, Kenny Dillingham sustain a winner at his alma mater of Arizona State, a school that’s long felt like a sleeping giant? Clark Lea has his own alma mater Vanderbilt in unprecedented territory, a 3-1 finish from a secured CFP berth. Lea, surely, will be coveted by other schools.

The discussion of which jobs are most appealing is nuanced. It depends on the candidate, their own background and personal preferences. Florida is a better job than Arizona State, but is it for Dillingham? If Kiffin stays in Oxford, it won’t necessarily mean Ole Miss is objectively a better job than LSU or Florida. But it would alter the way everybody looks at future coaching searches.

Perhaps LSU is such a grand opening it sways someone who almost certainly wasn’t going to leave otherwise. During Kalen DeBoer’s introductory presser at Alabama, he noted that Bama might have been the only job he would have left Washington to take.

LSU would be in a similar situation, a top-five job that’s proved fruitful for every recent coach except just-dismissed Brian Kelly. Nick Saban, Les Miles and Ed Orgeron all won championships as LSU coaches in the 20 years before Kelly.

There’s speculation around Notre Dame coach Marcus Freeman. He certainly seems to be happy and thriving in South Bend, but would LSU be an exception? There are logistical benefits to being at an SEC powerhouse instead of Notre Dame, but again, Freeman seems happy.

This all assumes LSU doesn’t make this overly complicated, which it appears poised to do. Otherwise, outside Kirby Smart, Ryan Day, DeBoer and Dan Lanning, it would seem no one else is off the table for LSU. They’ll have options. The Florida and Penn State openings, though, could prove more indicative of where the sport is.

The SEC and college football at large will look significantly different in 2026. And the sport has never felt more unpredictable from the standpoint of which program could rise in any given season.

A reminder that Georgia fans should include Smart in their appreciation this Thanksgiving. Every program outside Columbus, Ohio, longs for the stability he’s given the Bulldogs in a time of coaching chaos around the country.