How Georgia could host first-round CFP game, playing out scenarios

The top four teams in the CFP rankings when the final rankings are released at noon on Dec. 7 will receive first-round byes and not play until the CFP quarterfinals on Dec. 31 (Cotton Bowl) or Jan. 1 (Sugar Bowl, Rose Bowl, Orange Bowl).

But the teams seeded No. 5 through No. 8 are in line to play home games on their respective campuses on Friday, Dec. 19 (8 p.m.) or as part of a tripleheader on Saturday, Dec. 20 (noon, 3:30 p.m. or 7:30 p.m.) against the teams seeded Nos. 9 through No. 12.

There’s still a great deal left to play out, and scenarios are fluid, as the CFP selection committee has not been consistent in how it ranks teams, in terms of the application of metrics and data points.

At the moment, the most likely scenario holds that two Big Ten teams will be ranked in the top four and receive a first-round bye — the Big Ten projects to pit No. 1 Ohio State (11-0) against No. 2 Indiana (11-0) in its championship game -- and conventional wisdom is the loser of that game will remain in the top four.

In that scenario, that would leave two seeds in the top four that would receive a first-round bye.

Georgia CFP Scenario One

• Georgia beats Georgia Tech

• Georgia doesn’t play in SEC title game

The most likely scenario for Georgia to host a first-round CFP game would be for UGA to beat Georgia Tech, not play in the SEC championship game, and not finish ranked in the top four, and therefore, not receive a first-round bye and be seeded between No. 5 and No. 8.

For this to happen, a team currently ranked behind the Bulldogs would have to jump them in the CFP rankings.

The most likely team to do so would be current No. 5-ranked and projected Big 12 champion Texas Tech (10-1).

The Red Raiders, with the benefit of a championship game against current projected Big 12 title game opponent BYU (ranked No. 11, and 10-1), could get a favorable bump from the committee.

The committee would note Texas Tech’s only defeat came to current No. 20 Arizona State in one of the two games the Red Raiders’ starting quarterback missed with injury.

There is a possibility in this scenario, however, that Georgia could remain ranked in the top four — and receive a bye, thus not hosting a first-round CFP game.

This would occur if the committee kept the Bulldogs ranked ahead of projected Big 12-winner Texas Tech — largely on the strength of UGA’s schedule and quality wins — even if the Red Raiders were to win out.

Of course, if Texas Tech lost at West Virginia, as a 23.5-point favorite on Saturday, that would derail the Red Raiders’ chances of passing UGA in the rankings, as would a Texas Tech loss in the Big 12 championship game to projected opponent BYU, a team it defeated earlier this season in Lubbock, 29-7.

Georgia CFP Scenario Two

• Georgia beats Georgia Tech

• Georgia plays in, and wins, SEC title game

If the Bulldogs beat Georgia Tech, and play in and win, the SEC championship game at 4 p.m. on Dec. 6 at Mercedes-Benz Stadium, they won’t be playing a first-round game.

For Georgia to play in the SEC title game, it would need a loss from Texas A&M, which is playing at Texas (7:30 p.m., Friday) or a loss by Alabama, which is playing at Auburn (7:30 p.m., Saturday).

If Georgia were to win the SEC championship game, it would get a top-four seed and not host a first-round CFP playoff game.

In this scenario, Georgia would most likely play in the Sugar Bowl at 8 p.m. on Jan. 1 in a CFP quarterfinal against a first-round winner. The Sugar Bowl gets the higher-ranked conference championship game winner from the SEC and Big 12.

Georgia CFP Scenario Three

• Georgia beats Georgia Tech

• Georgia loses in the SEC championship game

If UGA were to beat Georgia Tech and play in and lose the SEC championship game, it’s more likely than not the Bulldogs would fall between No. 5 and No. 8 in the rankings and host a first-round CFP game.

This is especially true because the CFP selection committee has set a precedent that, barring an impactful injury to a key player or lopsided defeat, it will not drop a team playing in a conference championship game beneath a team that is not playing in its conference title game.

It seems unlikely an 11-2 Georgia would fall beneath the current one-loss teams ranked No. 6 and No. 7, neither of which is currently projected to play in their respective conference championship games:

• No. 6 Oregon (10-1)

• No. 7 Ole Miss (10-1)

The Bulldogs’ head-to-head win over Ole Miss would likely limit UGA’s fall to No. 7, at worst.

Georgia CFP Scenario Four

• Georgia loses to Georgia Tech

• Georgia loses in the SEC championship

Georgia would likely travel to play a first-round CFP game as the No. 9 or No. 10 seed even if it were to lose the next two games.

But if enough crazy things happen — a series of upsets leading to Michigan and BYU snatching automatic slots via conference championship game wins — and, the CFP committee showing extreme recency bias — there’s a remote chance the Bulldogs could miss the 12-team playoff.

ESPN’s College Football Playoff predictor has 19 teams with odds of 10% or better for making the 12-team field:

Ohio State 99%-plus

Indiana 99%-plus

Texas A&M 99%-plus

Georgia 99%

Texas Tech 94%

Oregon 94%

Notre Dame 88%

Ole Miss 87%

Oklahoma 85%

Alabama 68%

SMU 52%

North Texas 43%

BYU 39%

James Madison 36%

Virginia 29%

Tulane 26%

Miami 20%

Vanderbilt 11%

Michigan 10 percent

CFP Top 25

(with upcoming games)

1 Ohio State (11-0)

At No. 15 Michigan, noon Saturday

2. Indiana (11-0)

At Purdue, 7:30 p.m. Friday

3. Texas A&M (11-0)

At No. 16 Texas, 7:30 p.m. Friday

4. Georgia (10-1)

Vs. No. 23 Georgia Tech, 3:30 p.m. Friday

5. Texas Tech (10-1)

At West Virginia, noon Saturday

6. Oregon (10-1)

At Washington, 3:30 p.m. Saturday

7. Ole Miss (10-1)

At Mississippi State, noon Friday

8. Oklahoma (9-2)

Vs. LSU 3:30 p.m. Saturday

9. Notre Dame (9-2)

At Stanford 10:30 p.m. Saturday

10. Alabama (9-2)

At Auburn, 7:30 p.m. Saturday

11. BYU (10-1)

Vs. UCF, 1 p.m. Saturday

12. Miami (9-2)

At No. 22 Pitt, noon Saturday

13. Utah (9-2)

At Kansas, noon Friday

14. Vanderbilt (9-2)

At No. 19 Tennessee, 3:30 p.m. Saturday

15. Michigan (9-2)

Vs. No. 1 Ohio State, noon Saturday

16. Texas (8-3)

Vs. No. 3 Texas A&M, 7:30 p.m. Friday

17. USC (8-3)

Vs. UCLA, 7:30 p.m. Saturday

18. Virginia (9-2)

Vs. Virginia Tech, 7 p.m. Saturday

19. Tennessee (8-3)

Vs. No. 14 Vanderbilt, 3:30 p.m. Saturday

20. Arizona State (8-3)

Vs. Arizona 9 p.m. Friday

21. SMU (8-3)

At California 8 p.m. Saturday

22. Pitt (8-3)

Vs. No. 12 Miami, noon Saturday

23. Georgia Tech (9-2)

Vs. No. 4 Georgia, noon Saturday

24. Tulane (9-2)

Vs. Charlotte, 7:30 p.m. Saturday

25. Arizona (8-3)

At No. 20 Arizona State, 9 p.m. Friday

Projected CFP field seeds, games

First-round byes

1 Ohio State (projected Big Ten title game winner)

2 Indiana

3. Texas A&M (projected SEC title game winner)

4. Georgia

First round matchups

On campus sites, Dec. 19-20

No. 5 Texas Tech (projected Big 12 title game winner) vs. No. 12 Tulane (highest-ranked Group of Six champion)

No. 6 Oregon vs. No. 11 Virginia (projected ACC title game winner)

No. 7 Ole Miss vs. No. 10 Alabama

No. 8 Oklahoma vs. No. 9 Notre Dame

Quarterfinals

No. 4 Georgia vs. Winner of No. 5 Texas Tech-No. 12 Tulane

No. 1 Ohio State vs. Winner of No. 9 Notre Dame-No. 8 Oklahoma

No. 3 Texas A&M vs. Winner of No. 6 Oregon-No. 11 Virginia

No. 2 Indiana vs. Winner of No. 7 Ole Miss-No. 10 Alabama

Semifinals

Fiesta Bowl, 7:30 p.m. Jan. 8 teams TBD

Peach Bowl, 7:30 p.m. Jan. 9 teams TBD

CFP Championship Game

Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, Fla, Jan. 19