Former Lt. Gov. Geoff Duncan’s decision to run for governor as a Democrat isn’t a stunt. He’s lined up a veteran campaign team, high-dollar donors and a statewide strategy for next year’s midterm.
But Duncan’s biggest challenge might not be money or organization. It’s trust. Can a white, former Republican who once backed abortion limits, voted to loosen gun restrictions and opposed Medicaid expansion convince Democrats he’s truly one of them?
Duncan’s early rollout showcased both his credibility and his challenge. He’s aiming at the middle of Georgia’s political map with well-honed opposition to Donald Trump, arguing that only he can beat a GOP “puppet” of the president.
But in a state where Black voters and progressives form the backbone of the Democratic coalition, Duncan’s crossover appeal could just as easily be a vulnerability.
His main Democratic opponents are all trying to carve out their own lanes, arguing they can build a more durable coalition to win the May primary and a November election than a former conservative who switched parties only a few months ago.
“We’re not going to forget he was the lieutenant governor when some of the worst bills that Republicans have passed in the last decade were approved,” said former state Sen. Jason Esteves, one of his top Democratic rivals. “He’s going to have to answer and be held accountable for those bills.”
Duncan has leaned into the tension over his past stances rather than run from it. He’s said he was wrong on a range of issues, including his front-and-center support in 2019 for a measure that banned most abortions in Georgia as early as six weeks.
“I can’t hide the fact that I haven’t been a lifelong Democrat. That is what it is,” he said. “There are some issues that I didn’t get right as a Republican. But I am focused on the issues that matter most. I’m willing to say I didn’t get those issues right. I’m also willing to look forward and lead the state.”
To him, what matters most is electability. He casts Trump’s second term as a moral threat and argues that his rivals can’t defeat any of the three leading GOP contenders: Attorney General Chris Carr, Lt. Gov. Burt Jones or Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger.
Credit: AJC
Credit: AJC
It’s an argument that could resonate with some party loyalists. State Rep. David Wilkerson, a Powder Springs Democrat who is neutral in the race, noted that the first two Republican governors elected since Reconstruction — Sonny Perdue and Nathan Deal — were both former Democrats.
“It’s a long way until the primary, but I believe the Democratic base will get behind whoever our nominee is,” Wilkerson said. “With the chaos in Washington and the silence coming from Republicans in Georgia, our voters will want to elect a Democrat.”
‘I got it wrong.’
The team Duncan has assembled would be the envy of many veteran operatives.
His launch roster includes Michael Tyler, a Georgia native who served as communications director for Vice President Kamala Harris; Josh Marcus-Blank, another Harris veteran; David Eichenbaum, a former communications chief for President Bill Clinton; Rachel Rauscher, a fundraising strategist for President Barack Obama; and Ucha Ndukwe, a political strategist with deep roots in Georgia politics.
Duncan is also cranking up his fundraising operation. He said he’s received more than 3,500 small-dollar online contributions since announcing his campaign, even as he courts heavyweight donors. Supporters plan to roll out a high-powered outside PAC.
His Oct. 30 campaign kickoff fundraiser is co-hosted by billionaire health care entrepreneur Greg Benoit, philanthropist Stephanie Blank, criminal defense attorney Ed Garland, former Woodruff Arts Center CEO Virginia Hepner and several members of the wealthy Seydel family.
But Duncan’s biggest challenge isn’t organization, it’s message. He hardly does an interview where his years as a conservative — and the past stances that could alienate Democratic voters — don’t come up.
His record includes longstanding support for priorities championed by Gov. Brian Kemp and the GOP establishment. But the most frequent flashpoint is abortion, where he now says plainly: “Women deserve the right to choose. The highest quality an effective leader can have is the ability to say they got something wrong. And I got it wrong.”
Credit: AJC
Credit: AJC
For some Democrats, Duncan’s mea culpa doesn’t outweigh his past. They say they’d rather back any of his rivals — a field that includes Esteves, former Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms, former DeKalb chief executive Michael Thurmond, and state Reps. Derrick Jackson and Ruwa Romman.
“I have the utmost respect for a politician of his stature to switch parties. I know the existential crisis he went through, because I know from personal experience,” said Angie Jones, a Democratic activist from Johns Creek who made her own switch from the GOP before the 2016 election.
“But I will not support him because of his long history. I have nothing to go on other than who he used to be. And the politician he used to be is not someone I can back.”
Still, in the first weeks of his campaign, Duncan hasn’t hit the wall of opposition many expected. At the Democratic Party of Georgia’s annual gala this month, he was greeted with open arms — and selfie-taking activists — as he courted donors and local officials.
Credit: Hyosub Shin/AJC
Credit: Hyosub Shin/AJC
Cobb County Democratic Committee Chair Essence Johnson said Duncan fielded her tough questions during a sit-down shortly after he announced his campaign. She said she respected his honesty but sharply reminded him that Democrats have long memories.
“We remember policies and regulations that hurt our communities just as much as we remember who stood up for democracy when it mattered,” Johnson said.
“While there is respect for his stance on truth and accountability, that alone doesn’t automatically translate into broad Democratic enthusiasm.”
A big tent
Unlike Georgia Republicans, Democrats can’t rely solely on mobilizing their base to win statewide. The party’s recent victories in 2020 and 2022 depended on swing voters. Trump’s comeback last year, meanwhile, showed the limits of the Democratic resurgence. His win was powered by a turnout jolt that wiped out Democratic gains, increasing GOP vote share in 130 of Georgia’s 159 counties.
Credit: HYOSUB SHIN / AJC
Credit: HYOSUB SHIN / AJC
It’s a dilemma Jason Carter knows well. The party’s 2014 nominee is backing Esteves’ bid for governor, but he sees Duncan’s bid as a positive sign for Democrats — and a reflection of how fractured the GOP has become.
“I will never say anything bad about Geoff Duncan running as a Democrat because we need and want to really have a truly big tent where we can bring different people together,” Carter said. “We can glean the best of their ideas, and we can put them into action.”
Duncan is betting that voters, exhausted by Trump-era politics, will reward competence and candor over ideological purity. Whether that bet pays off depends on a Democratic electorate that has grown more progressive since the days when centrists dominated statewide races — and on whether voters see Duncan’s transformation as a conversion or an act of convenience.
Johnson, the Cobb Democratic leader, said she’s still undecided on that question.
“That won’t be our last conversation,” Johnson said of her meeting with Duncan. “And he understands that if he wants to reach Democrats, he is going to have to work hard to earn our trust.”
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