Politically Georgia: Reading the early voting tea leaves

Today’s newsletter highlights include:

Republicans criticize an image used in Democratic campaign mailers.
State senators urge the federal government to reevaluate storm damage.
Georgia TV stations benefit from political TV ad spending.

It can be dangerous to make sweeping conclusions about Georgia’s record-smashing in-person early voting turnout.

But ahead of the final — and potentially biggest — week of early voting we gauged the temperature of both campaigns now that more than 2.8 million votes have been banked.

First, the Democrats. Senior advisers for Vice President Kamala Harris are well aware that voter participation rates in some ruby-red rural counties far outpaces more densely populated Democratic strongholds.

ExploreUpdate: More than 3 million in Georgia have already voted

Jacquelyn Martin/AP

Jacquelyn Martin/AP

Harris number-crunchers see the 2022 midterm as the more relevant comparison and say they’re tracking above that turnout level. They expect this week to be the heaviest volume yet, particularly in metro Atlanta, and view their targets in reach.

Based on their modeling, nearly 20% of the Republican-leaning early voters so far this cycle cast Election Day ballots in 2022, compared with 10% of Democratic-leaning early voters. To them, that indicates a GOP “mode shift” toward earlier voting but not a major change in the size of the pro-Donald Trump electorate.

Women are outvoting men in Georgia by about 10 percentage points, an encouraging sign for a Democrat who polls well ahead of the former president with women voters. And according to Democratic analysis, turnout among Black women in the metro Atlanta suburbs is 40% higher in this cycle than at this point in 2020.

Evan Vucci/AP

As for Republicans, they’re ecstatic that efforts to encourage early voting seem to be paying off after largely neglecting the practice in 2020.

Turnout in some rural counties is well ahead of Democratic strongholds. For example, in Towns County, more than half the registered voters have already cast ballots.

After previous Trump campaigns neglected early voting, the Republican vice presidential nominee — Ohio U.S. Sen. JD Vance — put it this way during a Saturday stop in Atlanta: “We’ve got to use every method that we can.”

Brandon Phillips, a veteran Republican strategist who once led Trump’s Georgia operation, said GOP data modeling shows Trump with an edge of roughly 80,000 votes and that Democrats would be “fading by the day” if the pace continues.

Strategists from both camps expect a fresh boost in the final stretch of early voting. Trump returns to Atlanta and Powder Springs on Monday, while the Democratic vice presidential nominee — Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz — is set to campaign in Columbus and Savannah on Tuesday. Additional visits are expected.

In DeKalb County, the second-biggest trove of likely Harris votes behind Fulton, turnout is just now catching up to the levels reached by many smaller, Trump friendly counties.

DeKalb County Chief Executive Officer Michael Thurmond tipped his cap to the GOP for embracing early voting, as Democrats have done in past cycles. But he added that this story isn’t over yet.

“You’ve got to give Republicans credit. Imitation is the sincerest form of flattery. They’re adapting to a very different political environment,” he said. “And that means Democrats have to redouble their efforts.”

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Arvin Temkar/AJC

GOOD MORNING! The presidential election is in eight days. It was a busy weekend in Atlanta. Ohio U.S. Sen. JD Vance, the Republican vice presidential nominee, campaigned here on Saturday. Second gentleman Doug Emhoff, Vice President Kamala Harris’ husband, visited on Sunday.

Here are three things to know for today:

State Sen. Shawn Still, a Republican charged in the Fulton County election interference case, says he will accept the results of the presidential election, the AJC’s Michelle Baruchman and Tamar Hallerman report.
Meanwhile, Still’s race against Democrat Ashwin Ramaswami has turned contentious in the final weeks of the campaign, Baruchman reports.
Gwinnett County, once a Republican stronghold and now a key part of Democrats’ success, is one of Georgia’s most important battlegrounds this election, the AJC’s Greg Bluestein writes.

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Alex Brandon/AP

MULTIPLE OFFENDER. If former President Donald Trump’s rally at Madison Square Garden is the blueprint, expect fiery and controversial rhetoric during his campaign stop in Atlanta tonight.

A conservative comedian who served as an opening act drew rebukes from fellow Republicans for calling Puerto Rico an “island of garbage.” Former Fox News host Tucker Carlson mocked Vice President Kamala Harris’ racial identity and called her “low IQ.” Another speaker called Harris “the devil” and “the Antichrist.”

But Trump also gave his usual dark and dystopian stump speech littered with falsehoods. He continued to describe Democrats and the media as “the enemies within” and “enemies of the people.”

Trump will also be the featured guest at the National Faith Summit on Monday in Powder Springs. The event is hosted by his spiritual adviser, Paula White-Cain, who leads the conservative Christian group behind the summit.

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STOCK BLOCK. The Georgia House Republican Caucus is blasting some Democratic mail pieces in at least four state legislative districts that all feature the same stock photo of a white-haired man wearing a tan “Desert Storm Veteran” cap.

Affixed to the picture, which was accessible on Getty’s iStock images platform, was a quote saying that GOP candidates were threatening “families, freedom, prosperity and our right to vote.”

“Campaign desperation should NEVER amount to misleading voters with manufactured views and online stock photos of US veterans,” the GOP caucus posted on social media, demanding an apology to veterans.

This wouldn’t be the first time a stock image has come back to haunt a campaign in Georgia this election season. As our insider Greg Bluestein reported, former President Donald Trump’s campaign launched digital ads featuring an image of the country of Georgia instead of one of the Peach State.

We reached out to state Democratic officials for comment on Sunday and will update when we hear back.

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Susan Walsh/AP

LOOK AGAIN. The Georgia Senate wants a do-over.

After Hurricane Helene came through Georgia and wiped out the harvests of many farmers, the federal government stepped in to pay for their losses so it wouldn’t completely wipe them out.

But 13 Georgia counties have been excluded from the federal government’s most comprehensive crop insurance program. The reason? Data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s sophisticated weather monitoring system shows the hurricane wasn’t severe enough in those counties for them to qualify.

But the place where the federal government captures that data — the National Center for Environmental Information Headquarters in Asheville, North Carolina — was itself damaged during Hurricane Helene. State senators believe that damage could have prevented the federal government from gauging the true damage of the storm in Georgia.

In a letter to U.S. Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack — signed by 52 members of the Senate and shared first with Politically Georgia — the lawmakers are asking the USDA’s Risk Management Agency “to conduct additional analysis to fully capture the force and impact of Hurricane Helene.”

“Farmers and communities across our state are counting on the indemnity coverage to help recover the substantial losses they have suffered,” wrote Sen. Russ Goodman, R-Cogdell and the primary author of the letter.

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THE REAL WINNERS. No matter who wins Georgia’s 16 electoral votes next week, it’s clear who the real winners are: local TV stations.

As of Friday afternoon, the presidential candidates and their allies have spent more than $157 million on local TV ads in Georgia, according to data from the tracking firm AdImpact.

Here’s the top five:

WSB-TV (Atlanta, ABC): $46.1 million.
Fox 5 (Atlanta): $30.9 million.
11Alive (Atlanta, NBC): $20.6 million.
Atlanta News First (CBS): $15.7 million.
WTOC (Savannah, CBS): $4.7 million.

In total, Democrats have spent $85.4 million while Republicans have spent $72.3 million.

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New York Times

LISTEN UP. Today on “Politically Georgia,” the hosts talk about the state of the presidential race with veteran Democratic strategist James Carville and Associated Press national politics reporter Meg Kinnard.

Be sure to download the AJC’s Politically Georgia podcast on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts. Episodes are uploaded by noon each day, just in time to have lunch with us. You can also listen live at 10 a.m. EDT on 90.1 FM WABE. Have a question for the show? Give us a call at 770-810-5297.

On Friday’s show, the hosts reviewed Vice President Kamala Harris’ star-studded campaign rally in Clarkston. Plus, state Rep. Sam Park, D-Lawrenceville and the AJC’s Maya T. Prabhu discussed Asian American and Pacific Islander voters.

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Ron Williams

VOTING BLOCS. The presidential race in Georgia is so close that any number of voting blocs could make the difference. Over the past week, the “Politically Georgia” podcast has delved into some of these blocs, featuring conversations with leaders about the issues that matter most to them.

“Politically Georgia” producer Natalie Mendenhall shared some highlights:

Black voters. Polls show Black voters, men in particular, aren’t gravitating to Harris in the numbers she needs. Darius Jones, founder and president of the Black Empowerment Council, said the Black community “is going to benefit from that competition for our vote” in future election cycles.
LGBTQ voters. Jeff Graham, executive director of Georgia Equality, emphasized the importance of local elections in the General Assembly.
Female voters. The latest AJC poll shows more women favor Vice President Kamala Harris while more men support former President Donald Trump. Former state Sen. Jen Jordan, a Democrat, called women “the most reliable voters” in Georgia.
Hispanic voters. Gwinnett County Democratic Chair Brenda López Romero emphasized the economy, while Republican state Sen. Jason Anavitarte stressed immigration.
Asian American voters. State Rep. Sam Park, D-Lawrenceville, noted the diversity within the Asian American community, including dozens of different ethnic groups and languages spoken. Despite that, he said they have a lot of “shared common ground.”

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AJC

KNOW YOUR STUFF. We’ve received your emails and phone calls asking for more information about the three questions on the ballot. The AJC’s Mirtha Donastorg has more details to help you decide whether to vote “yes” or “no” as part of the AJC’s Know Your Stuff series.

These ballot questions hit on three different tax-related topics. One would slow the growth of property taxes, the second would establish a state tax court and the third would decrease how much small business owners pay in taxes.

Click here to learn more about each initiative and what supporters and opponents say.

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Manuel Balce Ceneta/AP

ON THE CAMPAIGN TRAIL. Today’s happenings:

President Joe Biden will vote in Wilmington, Delaware.
First lady Jill Biden and Minnesota first lady Gwen Walz will greet campaign volunteers in Traverse City, Michigan, before campaigning in Bay City, Michigan, and La Crosse, Wisconsin.
Second gentleman Doug Emhoff will speak during campaign events in Manitowoc and Waukesha, Wisconsin.
Vice President Kamala Harris will campaign in Saginaw and Macomb, Michigan, before joining Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz at a rally in Ann Arbor.
Former President Donald Trump will attend a faith summit in Powder Springs, Georgia, and then speak at a rally in Atlanta.
Donald Trump Jr. will speak at a campaign event in Coplay, Pennsylvania.
Eric Trump will deliver remarks at a campaign event in Wyandotte, Michigan.
Ohio U.S. Sen. JD Vance, Trump’s running mate, will speak at campaign events in Wausau and Racine, Wisconsin.
Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz will campaign in Manitowoc and Waukesha, Wisconsin, before meeting up with Harris in Michigan.

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Hyosub Shin/AJC

FIRST RESPONDER APPRECIATION. U.S. Rep. Rick Allen, R-Augusta, is hosting a luncheon today in Grovetown to honor local law enforcement officers, firefighters, EMTs and emergency management workers.

“Especially following Hurricane Helene’s devastating destruction, these selfless public servants continue to work around the clock to help our community recover and rebuild,” Allen said in a news release.

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Alyssa Pointer/AJC

SHOUTOUTS. Belated birthday:

State Sen. Brian Strickland, R-McDonough (was Saturday).

Want a birthday shoutout in the Politically Georgia newsletter? There’s a form for that! Click here to submit the shoutouts. It’s not just birthdays. We’re also interested in new jobs, engagements, birth announcements, etc.

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AS ALWAYS, send your best scoops, gossip and insider info to greg.bluestein@ajc.com, tia.mitchell@ajc.com, patricia.murphy@ajc.com and adam.beam@ajc.com.

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