Donald Trump secured two separate wins with Monday’s dominant performance in the Iowa caucuses.
He captured the first race of the 2024 nominating contest by a historic margin, with about 51% of the vote. And none of his rivals emerged as a clear Republican alternative to the former president.
Meanwhile, a new Atlanta Journal-Constitution poll released this morning shows how Trump could be on solid ground with Georgia voters in a general election matchup against President Joe Biden. Trump leads Biden 45-37 in a prospective head-to-head matchup.
The Georgia primary is March 12, and the Iowa outcome could hold clues for that vote. Iowa’s conservative, evangelical Republican electorate better mirrors Georgia’s GOP base than the strain of voters who will cast their ballots next week in New Hampshire’s primary.
With Trump’s dominant performance Monday in Iowa, the pressure builds on Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and former United Nations Ambassador Nikki Haley, whose tight contest for second place split the non-Trump vote.
DeSantis narrowly captured the No. 2 spot after moving his campaign to Iowa, but it was no decisive showing. He landed about 21% of the vote over Haley’s roughly 19%. Not surprisingly, DeSantis framed his runner-up finish as a victory and said “we’ve got our ticket punched out of Iowa.”
Haley sounded a similar note, saying Iowa made it a “two-candidate race” in a speech that entirely ignored DeSantis. She should fare better in New Hampshire, where some polls put her within striking distance of Trump.
Monday’s fourth place finisher, Vivek Ramaswamy, suspended his campaign following the caucuses and endorsed Trump.
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DIM OUTLOOK. One of the most startling takeaways of the AJC poll is the deep sense of pessimism about the nation’s future that will undoubtedly factor into the November vote.
Nearly three-quarters of registered voters say they think the U.S. is headed down the “wrong track” while only 15% believe the nation is going in the right direction.
The dismal view is pervasive, cutting across socioeconomic and racial lines, though younger, more conservative voters tend to have a more negative perspective on the country’s future.
Democrats, meanwhile, have a slightly more positive attitude, with roughly one-third saying the nation is on the right track and half with a negative outlook.
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Credit: Hyosub Shin/AJC
Credit: Hyosub Shin/AJC
MTG FOR VP? One of several Georgians in Iowa over the weekend was U.S. Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene. After rallying for Trump in Fort Dodge on Sunday, the Rome congresswoman went to Boone to deliver the caucus speech for Iowa voters there.
She was no stranger to the rural Iowa crowd, which included several voters who would like to see Trump tap Greene as his running mate this time around.
Rhonda Russell of Boone pulled Greene aside to tell the congresswoman she’s her hero and said she’d be a great pick. “She’s not afraid of the big dogs in the swamp,” Russell said. “I just think she’s brave to put herself out there to try and stop corruption in our government.”
Two other voters chatted amongst themselves about the second-term lawmaker becoming vice president. “She’s pretty tough,” said one. “Everybody knows who she is,” said the other.
Not everyone on hand was a fan. When Greene opened her remarks saying she’d refrain from criticizing Trump’s rivals, Nikki Haley supporter George Eckstein quipped, “That’ll be different.”
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Credit: Courtesy photo
Credit: Courtesy photo
FROZEN PEACHES. Speaking of Georgians in Iowa, state Rep. Scott Hilton, R-Peachtree Corners, and a group of fellow Republicans spent the weekend stumping for former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley in and around Cedar Rapids, about two hours east of Des Moines, with a group of hearty Georgians who quickly nicknamed themselves the “Frozen Peaches.”
The group caught the only flight into the city during a historic blizzard. Along with phone banking, Hilton braved the minus 10 degree weather with ski goggles and a parka to go door-knocking for Haley.
Credit: Courtesy photo
Credit: Courtesy photo
“We’d show up at people’s doors and they were amazed we’d come 800 miles from Georgia,” he said. On Monday, he gave a caucus-night speech on her behalf in Marion and called the entire process “democracy in action.”
The weather wasn’t always kind to the visiting Georgians. After driving down a snow-covered rural road to deliver materials to a caucus captain, their rental car slid into a ditch. Thankfully, a local farmer lived up to the “Iowa nice” reputation and towed them out with his tractor.
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LISTEN UP. The AJC’s Patricia Murphy and Tia Mitchell headed to Iowa to cover the caucuses over the holiday weekend. And they called in to the “Politically Georgia” radio show live from the Hawkeye State to discuss it all.
Catch up on that episode at Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Google Podcasts or wherever you listen to podcasts. And listen to Tuesday’s show live at 10 a.m. on WABE 90.1 FM, at AJC.com and at WABE.org.
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GEORGIA 3RD. There are now at least a half-dozen candidates in the race to succeed retiring GOP U.S. Rep. Drew Ferguson in west Georgia.
Former state Sen. Mike Crane filed paperwork to make another run for the 3rd Congressional District after losing to Ferguson in 2016, the last time the seat was open.
Back then, the Newnan Republican was backed by tea party groups and Texas U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz. His defeat was viewed as an enormous win for Georgia’s Republican establishment.
Credit: Hyosub Shin/AJC
Credit: Hyosub Shin/AJC
At every turn, Crane attacked mainstream forces, including an extraordinary outburst accusing his rivals of “gutter politics.” And he battled with then-Gov. Nathan Deal, leading a brief charge to override one of the governor’s vetoes.
Ferguson defeated Crane with the help of the Georgia Chamber, the U.S. Chamber of Commerce and other business boosters. Now Ferguson’s retirement gives Crane another shot at the seat — but this time he’ll have to fight for the anti-establishment lane.
Former state Rep. Philip Singleton, who is also (proudly) loathed by the powers-that-be, is also in the race. State Rep. David Jenkins of Grantville is running on a deeply conservative platform. Former state Sen. Mike Dugan is seen as more establishment-friendly.
Credit: Alyssa Pointer/AJC
Credit: Alyssa Pointer/AJC
Another potential contender is Brian Jack, a metro Atlanta native and former White House official who is an adviser to former President Donald Trump’s comeback attempt. He stood beside Trump during his victory speech in Iowa, where he served as a key campaign aide.
Chris West, who ran a losing bid two years ago in Georgia’s 2nd District, is also considering a run. He recently moved to Newnan and was in Iowa this week to stump for Trump. He told us he wasn’t quite ready to make any announcements yet.
“We’ll make a decision on Georgia three pretty soon, we’re getting a lot of calls and a lot of folks encouraging us, but right now we’re just out here focused on getting President Trump elected,” he said.
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Credit: Miguel Martinez/AJC
Credit: Miguel Martinez/AJC
WILLIS SPEAKS. Fulton County District Attorney Fani Willis has ended her silence over a court allegation that she had an “improper” relationship with a special prosecutor she hired to help bring the election interference case against former President Trump and his allies.
During a roughly 35-minute speech at Big Bethel A.M.E. Church on Sunday, Willis called Nathan Wade a legal “superstar” and suggested racism was at the heart of the claims leveled against her.
She didn’t address the claim that she had a romantic relationship with Wade, though she repeatedly referred to herself as a “flawed” and “imperfect” public servant and talked in personal details about the frequent death threats she’s faced.
It was one of two public appearances for Willis over the weekend. She also swung by the second annual Georgia legislative Shabbat dinner at Temple Emanu-El in Sandy Springs, joining dozens of lawmakers, judges and other officials. Also at the event: Attorney General Chris Carr and Fulton County Judge Scott McAfee, who is overseeing the Trump trial.
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Credit: Casey Sykes
Credit: Casey Sykes
UNDER THE GOLD DOME:
- The House and Senate are out of session this week as the appropriations committees meet to hash out the state budget. Floor action resumes Jan. 22.
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Credit: Haiyun Jiang/The New York Times
Credit: Haiyun Jiang/The New York Times
COUNTDOWN TO SHUTDOWN. A plan to temporarily fund the government and avoid Friday’s partial shutdown deadline has taken shape, and the Senate could take procedural votes as early as today to advance the proposal.
The plan backed by Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., and House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., would push the deadline for government agencies tied to four appropriations bills to March 1 and fund the remaining agencies through March 8.
The idea is to buy more time for Congress to pass long-term measures. But with deep disagreements between the Democratic-led Senate and the GOP-led House over funding levels, border security policies and language tied to diversity and inclusion and access to abortion, it is unclear how those talks will proceed.
The short-term funding measure, known as a continuing resolution, is likely to pass with bipartisan support. But it is becoming a political headache for Johnson, who like his predecessor Kevin McCarthy is backing government funding legislation that a large number of fellow House Republicans disagree with. McCarthy, R-Calif., was ousted as House speaker last October.
Georgia Reps. Marjorie Taylor Greene, Mike Collins, Rich McCormick and Andrew Clyde all gave varying levels of critiques to the continuing resolution and indicated they are prepared to vote against it.
Greene, R-Rome, and Clyde, R-Athens, both say the bill is a bad look for the speaker, who is governing with a razor-thin majority and struggling to maintain support from far-right members.
“I think more Democrats will vote for the bill, and that tells you right there it’s not a Republican bill,” Clyde said. “That’s a problem.”
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Credit: Pablo Martinez Monsivais/AP
Credit: Pablo Martinez Monsivais/AP
D.C. WEATHER UPDATE. The storm system that led to frozen roads and subzero temperatures in Iowa made it to Washington on Monday. Over two inches of snow fell in the area, the most in more than two years.
The weather conditions wreaked havoc on the local airports and could lead to postponements of House and Senate votes on stopgap government funding legislation.
Although a partial shutdown would technically begin at midnight on Friday, the effects wouldn’t be felt until early next week.
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TODAY IN WASHINGTON:
- President Joe Biden has no public events on his schedule.
- The House and Senate are scheduled to return for votes this evening, but the weather may not cooperate.
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Credit: Miguel Martinez/AJC
Credit: Miguel Martinez/AJC
ABRAMS CASH. Stacey Abrams’ campaign was a Democratic fundraising juggernaut for years, so powerful that the Republican-led General Assembly passed a law to help Gov. Brian Kemp catch up when he and Abrams squared off for a rematch in 2022.
Abrams lost her second bid to unseat Kemp but set another fundraising record by collecting $113 million.
Our campaign finance guru James Salzer reviewed Abrams’ final 2023 filing and found she had $28,803 left in her account. She spent about $457,000 in the most recent reporting period, most of it to help her leadership committee, One Georgia, pay down its massive debt left over from the 2022 campaign.
As of the end of 2023, One Georgia had $7,000 cash on hand. But even after Abrams’ campaign fund poured money into the leadership committee, its debt was listed at $865,000.
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DOG OF THE DAY. The Dog of the Day is traveling and will return tomorrow. Send us your dogs of any political persuasion and location, and cats on a cat-by-cat basis, to patricia.murphy@ajc.com, or DM us at @MurphyAJC.
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AS ALWAYS, Politically Georgia readers are some of our favorite tipsters. Send your best scoop, gossip and insider info to greg.bluestein@ajc.com, tia.mitchell@ajc.com, patricia.murphy@ajc.com, and adam.vanbrimmer@ajc.com.
