Even at No. 8, Georgia Tech can’t afford letdown to achieve its CFP dreams

But the Jackets are a mere 23rd in the power rankings that the Westgate SuperBook sportsbook in Las Vegas uses to set its betting lines, according to information shared with The Atlanta Journal-Constitution by Jay Kornegay, the establishment’s vice president of marketing.

The SuperBook’s rankings are formed by a combination of factors, including team history, strength of schedule and game observation, according to Kornegay. While there is often variation between the AP poll and the sportsbook’s rankings, Tech sticks out because of the size of the gap, Kornegay said.

“I am not saying that the oddsmakers are always correct, because they’re not,” Kornegay said. “But they are a better gauge of how good a team is.”

As he saw it, the Jackets’ strength of schedule holds back its ranking. To this point, their best wins are their road victories at Colorado (3-5), Duke (4-3) and Wake Forest (5-2) and a home win over Clemson (3-4). None of those teams are in the AP top 25, although Clemson is No. 19 in the SuperBook rankings.

“That does kind of make the case (against Tech) a bit,” Kornegay said.

Analytics-driven ranking systems hold a similarly dim view of Tech’s roster of opponents. In ESPN’s Football Power Index and the Sagarin ratings, Tech’s strength of schedule was ranked 81st and 53rd, respectively, as of Friday morning.

As a result, Tech is the lowest-ranked undefeated power-conference team (25th) in FPI by nine slots. Among the same group in Sagarin, Tech is No. 23, BYU is No. 24 and the next-lowest is Texas A&M at No. 5.

And here’s why that matters:

What the College Football Playoff selection committee prioritizes seems to vary with which direction the wind is blowing (and which team is being considered). But strength of schedule is a stated criterion and has been used to ding teams in the past.

As such, being undefeated matters more to the Jackets than it does to other undefeateds with stronger resumes, like No. 1 Ohio State or No. 2 Indiana. Any loss could serve to confirm suspicions that the Jackets are more a product of a weak schedule than a legitimate CFP contender.

Two losses would likely be fatal for their CFP hopes.

The first CFP rankings are scheduled to be released Tuesday. But if they were out now, Tech would likely be around No. 8. (The AP and CFP rankings typically hew closely through the top 15, normally matching or not varying by more than one slot.)

If the Jackets were to lose any of their three remaining ACC games — at N.C. State, at Boston College and home vs. Pittsburgh — it would probably drop them at least five slots, to around No. 13. And if they were to lose to Georgia, even in a close game, they would likely drop further.

That would be enough to leave Tech on the outside looking in, particularly if the one ACC loss kept Tech out of the conference title game and prevented the Jackets the chance to secure an automatic bid with a conference championship. (The five highest-ranked league champions earn automatic bids into the 12-team field.)

Finishing 11-2 with losses to No. 5 Georgia and in the ACC title game could be disqualifying also, especially if one or both were decisive. Losing two ACC games to fall out of the conference race would almost certainly take the Jackets out also, even if they were to upset the Bulldogs at Mercedes-Benz Stadium.

In short, a two-loss Tech team likely wouldn’t have enough of a resume to stay in the top 11. (As the fifth-highest-ranked conference champion almost certainly will be outside the top 12, only teams ranked 1-11 could make the CFP.)

A year ago, SMU did make the CFP field at 11-2 with a loss in the ACC title game. But its strength of schedule was higher than where Tech’s likely will finish, and the Jackets losing their last two games in this scenario could be held against them (even if they were the two toughest games of the year).

Amid the excitement that coach Brent Key’s team has generated, it’s almost jarring to consider the possibility that this season, which has so often felt destined for a historic outcome, could come undone fairly easily. Tech is favored against N.C. State and almost certainly will be against Boston College and Pitt, but it’s not as if the Jackets are impervious to defeat. (As of now, Kornegay estimates Georgia will be a 13-point favorite for Clean Old-Fashioned Hate.)

One slipup against N.C. State, B.C. or Pitt and a loss to the Bulldogs — even a hard-fought one — would do it.

That would be Grade-A heartbreak. (The Tech-Georgia game could be a de facto CFP play-in game. Goodness.)

But the potential agony is surely worth risking for the chance at a truly historic season.

For what it’s worth, ESPN’s metrics rate Tech’s probability of making the playoffs at 49.8% and its chances of winning the ACC at 42.6%. At this point, a 12-0 regular season isn’t beyond the realm of possibility.

Tech has finished a regular season without a loss or tie only three times in its illustrious history — most recently in 1952, claiming national championships for each. All this possibility for a team that was in disarray no more than three seasons ago.

It challenges the imagination of even the most wild-eyed Tech fan.

And it sure beats being 3-9.