Weekend Reflections: Kyle Pitts makes case for Falcons to pay him

But now Pitts is finishing up a season that’s at least as good as his first one while driving up his price. Pitts is in the final year of his contract. It’s great timing for him to remind everyone why he was an all-time great prospect.

Over his past four games, Pitts has produced 31 catches for 395 yards and four touchdowns. He was outstanding against the Bucs in Week 15 and was very good against the Cardinals on Sunday. Pitts lately has overwhelmed opponents with his size, speed, athletic ability and sure hands.

At Tampa Bay, he made several plays downfield while catching 11 passes for 166 yards and three touchdowns. His seven catches at Arizona totaled just 57 yards, but Pitts gained first downs on five of them. That includes a 5-yard TD that evened the score at 16-16 after the Falcons had trailed 10-0.

Pitts is having a great month, but he’s been good all year. With two games left, he’s already set career highs for receptions (80) and touchdowns (five). Pitts needs 173 yards to top the 1,026 from 2021, when he was named to the Pro Bowl.

Pitts has become a good blocker, too. Don’t forget about his durability. He missed seven games in 2022 after knee surgery but played in all 17 games in three other seasons. He’s started all 15 games this season while playing nearly 90% of the offensive snaps.

Pitts will have plenty of suitors if he makes it to free agency. The Falcons have the leverage to prevent that. They can pretty much ensure Pitts comes back in 2026 by signing him to a franchise tag tender for one year and about $16 million (the exact figures are to be determined).

That would be a raise of about $5 million. The tender would take up a big chunk of the team’s salary cap. The Falcons could lower that figure by signing Pitts to a long-term extension.

That didn’t seem like an imperative for the Falcons a year ago. Maybe it’s still not, but Pitts has moved up the list of their offseason priorities. Other teams will have him on their free-agent wish list. At 25, he is the best of an otherwise old and uninspiring group of tight ends who are eligible for free agency in 2026.

Pitts creates mismatches. Play-callers love that. His improved blocking makes him a two-way threat when he’s lined up next to the tackles. Per PFF, Pitts ranks second in reception yards when deployed as an “inline” tight end.

Pitts still has occasional concentration lapses. He missed a chance at an easy TD on Sunday because he stopped playing after a defender held him in the end zone. But Pitts has greatly reduced the bad plays during his fifth pro season while delivering plenty of good ones and becoming a good blocker on top of that.

The Falcons should do what they can to keep him. Don’t break the bank but also don’t be thrifty. Their plan of winning with a deep group of playmakers is more plausible with Pitts on the roster.

Panthers seize control of NFC South

The Panthers went full rebuild by trading several veteran players since the start of last season. The Falcons acquired quarterbacks Kirk Cousins and Michael Penix Jr., then poured more resources into fixing their defense.

The Falcons (6-9) fell on their faces. The Panthers (8-7) are flourishing by NFC South standards.

The Panthers will clinch a playoff a berth Sunday with a victory over the Seahawks (12-3) and a loss by the Buccaneers (7-8) at the Dolphins (6-9). If the Panthers don’t clinch next weekend, they can do so by winning at Tampa Bay in the final regular-season game.

If the Panthers make the playoffs, it will leave the Falcons with the longest playoff drought among NFC teams (eight years). The Panthers are doing what the Falcons were supposed to do by rising to the top of the weak division. Carolina swept the Falcons and won against two bad teams that beat them, the Dolphins and Jets.

Some will say the quarterbacks explain the diverging fortunes of the Falcons and Panthers. Others might cite coaching. I don’t think either explanation is satisfying.

The Panthers seemed stuck with Young after they benched him for Andy Dalton last season. Young has led six game-winning drives this season. But that really means he’s made enough good plays to overcome the bad ones that put his team in holes to begin with. Young is as inconsistent as he’s always been since the Panthers drafted him No. 1 overall in 2023.

I also don’t think coaching explains why Carolina has soared past the Falcons.

Critics like to mention that Raheem Morris came to Atlanta with a losing record as an NFL head coach. Dave Canales had no head-coaching record at all when the Panthers hired him. His claim to fame was helping Baker Mayfield resurrect his career while calling plays for one season in Tampa Bay.

Canales is the fourth head coach hired since 2018 by franchise owner David Tepper, who also is on his third general manager. Maybe Tepper finally got it right while Arthur Blank keeps getting it wrong.

Miami defends ACC’s honor

The media hot takes were ready. The details just needed to be filled in.

Miami’s loss at Texas A&M would be proof the ACC didn’t deserve even one bid for the College Football Playoff. Get quotes from angry officials at Notre Dame, BYU and Texas. Hit send and call it a day.

But the Hurricanes rewrote that story by going to Texas A&M and beating the Aggies in the first round Saturday. Miami did it by overcoming several mistakes and outlasting the Aggies in a physical, emotional contest. The ‘Canes kept their nerves in a hostile environment, ran the ball in windy conditions and became the first of seven visitors to win at Kyle Field this season.

Miami running back Mark Fletcher pounded away at the Aggies until he broke a 56-yard run that set up the final touchdown. Miami’s defense suffocated the Aggies whenever they threatened to score. Quarterback Carson Beck didn’t make any big mistakes.

It was, dare I say, an SEC-style victory for Miami. Not bad for a two-loss ACC team.

The truth is Miami was a tough draw for Texas A&M. The ‘Canes had been underachievers this season, like many before. They have the talent to match the top teams of the SEC and Big Ten. Coach Mario Cristobal’s blunders have hurt the Hurricanes in the past, but he kept them together in this big game.

Miami advanced to face Ohio State in the CFP quarterfinal at the Cotton Bowl. The Buckeyes were 9½-point favorites as of Sunday evening. The party will be over soon for the ‘Canes. At least nobody will be able to say they should have never been invited.

Group of Five teams falter again

With Miami foiling the CFP committee’s haters, they now can turn their attention to the two Group of Five entrants. American Conference champion Tulane lost 41-10 at Ole Miss and Sun Belt champ James Madison lost 51-34 at Oregon.

Group of Five teams are 0-4 in the CFP. The average margin of defeat is 21.5 points. James Madison’s 17-point margin is the smallest. The Dukes needed three garbage-time touchdowns to keep the score that close.

Clearly, the poor showing by Group of Five teams in the CFP means they should be excluded. But wait! Plenty of power-conference teams have suffered blowout losses in the first round of the playoff.

Last season, it was SMU (28-point margin) of the ACC and Tennessee (25 points) of the SEC. First-round blowouts happened during the four-team playoff era, too. Oklahoma lost by a margin of 35 points to LSU in 2019. Notre Dame lost by 27 points to Clemson in 2018. Michigan State lost 38-0 to Alabama in 2015.

The difference is that those are outliers, while Group of Five teams have suffered playoff blowouts 100% of the time. One of them may luck up and win game eventually, but multiyear recruiting sets a ceiling for college programs. NIL hasn’t changed the reality that elite power-conference programs still get pretty much all the best recruits.

Group of Five teams are included in the CFP because college sports administrators fear antitrust lawsuits if they are left out. If those administrators ever end up in court, they should just show a judge the CFP results.